(International relations) – On January 20, 2021, Mr. Joe Biden officially took office as President of the United States. What everyone is waiting for is what will the US foreign policy look like?
Even before, experts and media have made predictions about the foreign policy of the new US administration for the Asia-Pacific.
In the past, the generations of President Barak Obama or Donald Trump also had very big plans for the Asia-Pacific, but they have not yet realized. This raises the question of, will American policy in Asia change later?
And now, a lot has become clear about the Biden administration’s stance, after the new US President announces his e-kip.
Will America’s Asia Policy Not Change?
According to experts, there will not be any major changes in the US Asia-Pacific policy if Mr. Biden becomes the head of the White House, but the approach and the balance of power mechanism will be more. change from Donald Trump’s time.
First of all, the Asia-Pacific region has been and will remain the center of attraction for modern political and economic processes. And like many other countries in the world, for objective and subjective reasons, the US also gives priority to this region.
It should also be noted that it was President of the Democratic Party, Mr. Barack Obama, who declared the pivot of US foreign policy towards Asia. And then, Mr. Joe Biden was Vice President of Mr. Obama.
Trump’s Washington prefers bilateral relations over multilateral mechanisms because they provide more leverage.
At the beginning of his presidency, Mr. Trump decided not to continue joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), leaving some of his Asian allies without a counterbalancing mechanism against China. National.
|Biden will continue the strategy of “pivot to Asia” of Obama|
That is precisely the reason to believe that if Mr. Biden is elected, the US could return to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, possibly just because the association is Barack Obama’s brainchild.
When the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) was first established, the US did not want to join for fear that it was not a dominant player in the bloc. (though joined later).
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a trade treaty signed in November 2020 encompasses 10 Southeast Asian countries together with non-regional partners. China, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand and Australia, which created the largest trading bloc in the world, without the US.
Negotiations on the RCEP began in 2012, before Trump’s presidency and over the two US presidents (including Barak Obama), the United States decided not to participate in the Agreement.
With the absence of the world’s No. 1 economic power, the RCEP sends a clear message to its Asian counterparts that China is the main trading partner of the whole region and the role of the US in Asia. decrease. And now, Mr. Biden will have to fix that.
According to analysts, the first issue that Mr. Biden must do after coming to power is to strengthen the role of the US in APEC; find mechanisms to return to the Asia-Pacific international structures that Trump has left, such as TPP, RCEP; at the same time continue to promote the plan to build a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”.
|Biden will continue his anti-China policy but will be more flexible than Trump|
The new cabinet member shows a position on China
If you look at the figures that Joe Biden brought back to his crew, one can judge quite accurately about the foreign policy course that the 46th President of the United States will pursue.
Secretary of State will be Antony John Blinken, who advocates restraining China and Russia. He comes from a Jewish family, so it is likely that the new US Secretary of State will continue the pro-Israel policy of his predecessor Donald Trump in the Middle East.
Indeed, Biden himself had promised that one of his first actions after his inauguration would be to cancel Trump’s order banning citizens of certain Muslim countries from entering the United States.
Mr. Jake Sullivan will serve as Assistant President for Security. Recently, he stated that it is necessary to “sit down and settle economic disagreements” that the United States currently has with China. But don’t wait for Washington to ease up with Beijing, and the US posture will be the imposition of the strong.
Ms. Katherine Tai will be the US trade representative, but unlike Secretary of State Antony John Blinken, few believe that this American woman will turn the US-China trade war into lasting peace. Because most of the overseas Chinese in America are in a hostile position with China.
A key figure in US foreign policy towards China is likely to be Kurt Campbell. During the years 2009-2013 under Barak Obama, he served as Assistant Secretary of State in charge of East Asia and Pacific affairs.
He is considered the author of the theory “pivot to Asia” under President Obama. Kurt Campbell said that Beijing’s policy last year has caused a lot of damage to America.
|Little hope for the prosperity in US-Korea relations under Biden|
As such, knowledgeable Chinese experts and Chinese will be in charge of the most important areas of White House foreign policy in Asia.
This means that there will still be obstacles on the path of developing relations between the United States and China, typically: The fight for world leader, the Sino-American trade war, love bilateral trade imbalances, yuan exchange rates, free navigation in the South China Sea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet and the Uyghur Uighurs (Uighurs in Xinjiang).
However, perhaps putting pressure on Beijing on these matters will be promoted more subtly, diplomatically, with less loud statements in front of the press.
In relations with China, Mr. Biden himself wanted to do what Trump had failed to do, which was to bring together an anti-China alliance from different countries.
Other key issues in Asia
In South Asia, especially relations with India, Russian expert Piotr Tsvetov said that good hopes could extend to the country under Biden.
The story is that the person elected as Vice President of the United States is Kamala Harris who has ancestry from India to the United States and in addition to her, another 20 people of Indian descent will work in the Biden administration, including the White House Chief of Staff. Therefore, it is not realistic to worry that US-India relations will deteriorate and deteriorate.
|India will be the focus of the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”|
Most likely, the new White House owner will continue to promote the realization of the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” concept that President Trump has proposed to countries on the Thai coast. Binh Duong and Indian Ocean, of which, the key link will be India.
In East Asia, neither should expect a change in US policy toward North Korea.
If Mr. Trump’s primary goal was to strip Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile capabilities, he would not have reached that goal, as North Korea has continued to develop its long-range strike capabilities (like Binh Pyongyang has shown in the most recent parade with a series of new ICBMs).
But President Trump’s tenure nonetheless has a great achievement in opening a channel of direct communication with Kim Jong-un that the upcoming President Joe Biden will be able to use to continue dialogue and reduce escalation. Hope, however, is fragile.
The leaders of the two countries had previously expressed their annoyance with each other. Mr. Joe Biden once called the head of North Korea a “ruthless dictator”, and Mr. Kim Jong-un even called the new US President “crazy dog”.
But Kim was right when speaking at the 8th Congress of the Korean Workers Party: “Whoever takes power in the United States makes no sense, the true nature of the United States and its principled policy. they with North Korea will not change ”.
The North Korean leader’s statement is more accurate than ever. Unfortunately that comment also seems relevant to assess the US foreign policy in other directions. Who is President of the United States is not so important because it is just a character who exercises the will of the ruling class.