What positive signals have the central bank released for financial data in 2019?
The central bank just released financial statistics for 2019 showing that broad money grew by 8.7% and narrow money grew by 4.4%; RMB loans for the year increased by 16.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 643.9 billion yuan, an increase of 12.3%; RMB deposits increased by 153,600 Billion yuan, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year.
From the financial data released by the central bank, some positive signals have been released, and there are also signs of continued economic stabilization.
On the one hand, the annual increase of medium- and long-term loans by financial institutions increased by 5.88 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations, indicating that financial institutions have focused on supporting the real economy, seriously implemented the central government’s policies and measures to support the real economy, and further returned funds to their origins; It also shows that corporate financing needs to pick up, the willingness of entities to invest has strengthened, and business vigor has also picked up.
On the other hand, the gap between M1 and M2 scissors has further narrowed, indicating that corporate and private investment enthusiasm has picked up. At the end of December, M1 increased by 4.4% year-on-year, and M2 increased by 8.7% year-on-year. The scissors difference between the two was 4.3%, and the difference between M2 and M1 scissors at the end of 2018 was 7%. This phenomenon also shows that real estate sales continue to cool and financial deleveraging prevents risks. The effect of the policy has appeared, and the decrease in the amount of funds flowing into the real estate sector has also shown that corporate efficiency has gradually improved, and inventory replenishment and the willingness to invest in the real estate have increased.
Moreover, the broad money growth was 8.7%, and the narrow money growth was 4.4%, basically in line with the actual growth of China ’s money and credit investment. It released a favorable signal that China ’s money and credit growth was basically coordinated with China ’s economic development and residents ’income growth.
On the one hand, the increase in money and credit investment has made corporate and residential financing active, and corporate deposits, residential deposits, and handheld cash have increased to a certain extent; the growth of corporate deposits indicates that corporate financing capabilities have increased, and the operating capacity of funds used for production and circulation has increased. The desire to expand the regeneration life has increased, which has played a strong role in breaking the current economic downturn.
On the other hand, the growth of household deposits and cash in their hands not only helps to improve people’s livelihood and drive consumption to expand domestic demand, but also makes residents’ investment increasingly active, which is conducive to stimulating private investment growth and further consolidates the microeconomic cornerstone of China’s economic growth.
But at the same time, we can’t be complacent about these data, nor can we be blinded by the results of the data. We must see the current difficulties and problems in the financial and economic fields: First, the housing sector’s loans are growing rapidly, and a large part of this is due to the increase in residential mortgage loans. . Financial institutions ’annual RMB loans increased by 16.81 trillion yuan, and household sector loans increased by 7.43 trillion yuan, accounting for 44.2% of the total loan growth, and accounting for nearly 50% of newly added loans for the year. This is not a good sign. The “dominant mortgage” risk has not been fundamentally eliminated; and the medium and long-term household loans amounted to 5.45 trillion yuan, accounting for 73.4% of the total household sector loans, which indicates that most of the household sector loans are used to purchase mortgage loans, with some potential hidden in them. Risks: If real estate warms up or the regulatory authorities relax slightly, or the problem of credit asset shortages cannot be effectively resolved, bank credit may regain its old path. Moreover, the RRR cut began in the first month of 2020, and 800 billion yuan of funds were released. Although it is required to inject into real enterprises, especially private small, medium and micro enterprises, it is still difficult to prevent a lot of funds from flowing into the real estate and property market sectors. This is especially true. Issues for concern.
At the same time, the slowdown in the growth rate of deposits is difficult to reverse, which will have a greater constraint on the future expansion of banks’ sources of credit funds and the enhancement of credit support capabilities of the real economy. The RMB deposits for the year increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.96 trillion yuan year-on-year, an increase of 8.7%, which could not be compared with the growth rate of more than ten percent in previous years.
The contradiction of reduced deposits will become more prominent in future operations. It is necessary to accelerate the pace of financial entrepreneurship and business transformation to deal with the restrictions on operations brought by the reduction of liabilities. Moreover, due to the impact of the slowdown in deposit growth, bank institutions’ deposits and loans are relatively high, which will bring great disadvantages to the continued improvement of credit operation capabilities in the future. At the end of December 2019, the RMB deposit-to-loan ratio was as high as 79.38%, putting pressure on commercial banks to operate.
□ Mo Kaiwei (financial commentator) editor Chen Li proofread Xue Jingning