According to Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Vietnam’s economy could grow 7.41% in the first quarter of this year, thanks to strong exports and tourism.
In the first quarter of 2018, the tourism industry could increase 60% while total trade would increase 40% from a year earlier, Prime Minister Phuc revealed this information during his official visit to New Zealand. If achieved, this will be the quarter with the highest growth rate in the first quarter in many years, significantly higher than the 5.15% increase in the first quarter of last year.
Vietnam’s growth rates are typically lower in the first quarter than the rest of the year, due to a week-long holiday during the Lunar New Year. According to Prime Minister Phuc, Vietnam is likely to have a trade surplus of nearly $ 2 billion in a three-month period.
According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, Vietnam’s economy is forecast to grow 6.83% this year, compared to 6.81% last year.
The General Statistics Office is expected to release the official GDP figures on March 29th. After visiting New Zealand, Prime Minister Phuc will officially visit Australia later this week to attend the ASEAN-Australia Summit in Sydney. .
Previously, Saigon Securities Inc (HoSE: SSI) also predicted that the first quarter GDP growth index would be equivalent to the second half of 2017, even in a good scenario, it could reach 8. %.
The foundation for positive growth is based on factors, including the electronics industry that maintains high growth, as the Galaxy S9 will be released in March 2018, earlier than the launch of the Galaxy S8 in May. 4-2017; the mining industry grew positively and the services sectors such as retail, accommodation and catering services maintained steady growth.
Accordingly, the industrial index in the first 2 months of the year increased by 15.2%, this is the highest growth rate in many years and especially high compared to the same period in 2017 (up only 2.4%). The strong growth in the manufacturing and processing industry together with the positive growth of the mining industry (negative growth in the same period of 2016 and 2017) are the two main drivers of the overall growth.
Manufacturing and processing increased by 17.7%, also the highest growth rate in many years. Electronics continued to be the mainstay with 38.3% growth, mainly thanks to SamSung Display Vietnam’s revenue of 49.3 trillion dong, 2.2 times higher than the same period.
Many other products of the industry also experienced positive growth, with some products reflecting improvements in consumer demand such as food, beverages and furniture, up 6% and 7.9 respectively. % and 20.2%.
The mining industry surprised with positive growth of 5.7% after 2 consecutive years of decline. Retail sales of goods and services in the first 2 months of 2018 maintained a relatively high growth rate. Total retail value reached 704,000 billion VND, up 10.1% over the same period.
* Source: Investment bridge