The West is worried about the second geopolitical wave after the pandemic
According to The Atlantic, this is a scenario that scares the West: As Europe and the US begin to feel the control of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the virus begins to rage in the developing world. Exhausted, suffering from debt and trying to revive their own economies, rich countries cannot support poor countries as quickly as before. From there give rise to panic. Migrants rushed into Southern Europe, which is still struggling to escape the recession caused by COVID-19. Many countries have defaulted on national debts that are primarily held by Western financial institutions. Anarchy will be an opportunity to acquire land. The United States is not ready to play a leading role, causing China to jump into the gap.
This is just an imaginary scenario among many that worries Western countries. According to security experts, academics and government advisers who interviewed The Atlantic, almost everyone thinks there will be a second wave and the real concern is where this wave will strike.
History shows that big changes will trigger a chain reaction. The fall of Wall Street stock market in 1929 created the era of New Deal (New Deal). The Allied victory in 1945 facilitated the formation of the Cold War. Each event has political aftershocks and creates trends that we can only see later.
The decade after the 2008 financial crisis caused the Eurozone to collapse, Britain voted to leave the European Union and Donald Trump was elected President of the United States.
Today, the global economy is facing difficulties because of the geopolitical situation suddenly changing as the US-China tensions increase, the trade situation is slowly becoming clear and dividing the structure between Northern Europe and Southern Europe. a wide.
The question is what will happen in the decade after the COVID-19 crisis?
According to Robert Kaplan, a US foreign policy expert, the second geopolitical wave will impact Europe the most. At that time, Russia, the country heavily affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, would be more dependent on China and make Beijing’s influence stronger in Europe.
There could be a series of consequences in the second wave. The possibility of COVID-19 will be raging in developing countries of the G-20, the world’s leading group of developed and emerging economies, such as India. Meanwhile, the virus will quickly find its way back to Europe and the US. A second consequence could be the impact of technological advances in areas such as artificial intelligence after being used to help prevent the virus from spreading. A third consequence could be the recession that strained relations between poor countries in southern Europe and rich countries in northern Europe.
Unrest in the arc from West Africa, to the Middle East and Europe was also a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. These areas have had unrest and conflict in recent years, forcing people to flee elsewhere.
According to Karin von Hippel, general director of the Royal Reunification Army Institute, some countries may try to embrace China after the pandemic, but most countries can find ways to separate.
For Britain, Germany, France and major European economies dependent on the US security umbrella but wishing to maintain strong economic relations with China, their difficulties in managing the consequences of US government opposition to China will now only increase.
This is the world in which countries will have to think about strategic vision. Some challenges may be entirely new, but many may still be old but more serious due to disease, such as deteriorating relations between the US and China.
However, for Western governments, there is a simple fact with the second wave of geopolitics: money. A number of senior British Government officials said: “You have more problems but you have less money to solve.”
You are an example. After more than 10 years of public spending cuts, the British army (which had been able to support the United States in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan nearly 20 years ago) has now become an unsustainable force for more than 6 months apart. Europe. What will the British military capacity be like if spending is cut again? London authorities will have to focus more on being able to handle it rather than on what they want to do.
Inside the British Government, concerns about the second wave of geopolitics of COVID-19 are real. They are seeking to understand potential threats and prepare to cope. The British government believes that protectionism will increase, the chain will be brought back to the control of the government, the independent states will be strengthened, the US-China relationship will be more contradictory.
In short, whether or not the disease will bring about revolutionary changes, the fact is that the second wave of diseases will not be the only concern.