The Russian government believes that by 2024, Russia may lose the title of the world’s largest gas exporter, according to the plan to implement the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2035.
According to the document, in the period from 2021 to 2023, Russia will always occupy the first place among the three largest suppliers of gas to the international market. However, the outlook for 2024 is less certain.
Accordingly, in the context of the changing gas market situation in terms of suppliers, Russia faces a precarious prospect: It may retain its position as the world’s largest gas exporter, but it may also decline. second in terms of “green energy” exports.
Russia has always been the largest gas supplier to the international market, of which Europe is the main market for this country.
|Russia is holding the number one position in gas exports to Europe|
According to OPEC data, in 2019 the Russian Federation exported about 261 billion cubic meters of gas. Meanwhile, the second largest supplier is Qatar exporting 143 billion cubic meters, third is the United States with 132 billion cubic meters. Norway is in fourth place, exporting 111 billion cubic meters of gas, followed by Australia (100 billion cubic meters) in fifth.
Dmitry Marinchenko, director of the division of natural resources and fuels at Fitch, commented that, among the world’s largest exporters of liquefied petroleum gas, the United States has the most potential in terms of gas production. increase production because they have large shale gas reserves; followed by Qatar, which is planning to increase production capacity. Therefore, those are the two countries that are likely to rise to the first rank.
However, this expert emphasized that the goal of preserving the top at all costs is not the most rational approach for Russia, but the most important thing is how any new project brings about profits, foreign exchange earnings and taxes for the budget.
Mr. Marinchenko also said that Russia is unlikely to sharply increase sales to the European market, possible obstacles are competition with liquefied natural gas (LNG) and European countries are gradually gradually switch to using “green energy” sources.
In addition, the US is using many coercive tactics to knock Russia out of this fertile market to help its liquefied natural gas enter this market, for example, sanctioning the Nord Stream project. 2 (Nord Stream 2), forcing European countries to buy their own LNG.
However, Russia can still retain its energy hegemony if it increases investment to increase its share of the gas market through the construction of new gas pipelines to China and implementation of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects.
However, that will not be a short time and it will take several years for Russia to regain its gas market share.