Over the past few weeks, there has been movement of Russian troops and armored vehicles to the Ukrainian border. This is explicitly done during the day.
It would be naive not to see a relationship with Ukraine’s force gathering in Donbass, willingness to launch an attack on the Donetsk People’s Republic and the self-proclaimed Lugansk (DPR and LPR) that Moscow has said would not. give up.
|The Russian army is concentrating its combat forces close to Ukraine’s border|
According to “Military Commentary” magazine analyst Sergey Marzhetsky, it is important to try to understand the motivations of all parties in this conflict to fully understand and predict.
First what Donbass needs, they certainly want it to be left alone. So what does Ukraine need? The Kiev government probably wants the full return of the DPR and LPR under the “Karabakh scenario”.
However the least that Ukraine would accept could be to regain at least part of its territory, enough to make Kiev proudly declare it a “great victory” and “a brilliant victory of weapons. Ukraine “.
And what does Russia need? Moscow certainly wants to maintain the status quo as the DPR and LPR remain as a buffer zone, continue to control Crimea and complete the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to be able to escape transshipment through Ukraine.
Meanwhile, according to the Russian expert, the West or rather the US – the country behind Ukraine clearly wants to bring the war in Donbass to a dire and heavy loss to force the Kremlin to directly send Russian soldiers. poured into DPR and LPR holdings.
This is necessary to introduce another tough package of sanctions against Russia, including the paralysis, closure or complete control of the aforementioned Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
Let us now see what the sides of the conflict are ready to do to achieve their goals. Over the past seven years, Kiev has been reforming the armed forces, multiplying the numbers, increasing the level of organization and the ability to control.
Currently, two strong “punches” are aimed at Donetsk and Lugansk. According to the Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces – General Ruslan Khomchak, the DPR and LPR currently have a total of 28,000 defenders.
If the offensive were to take place, the Ukrainian Army clearly had a much better edge and the two unrecognized republics would certainly not have survived on their own. In the event of a massive attack by the Ukrainian armed forces, they will need Russian assistance.
The problem is that the Kremlin wants to avoid falling into the American trap. The Russian leadership is clearly trying to “rock” Kiev, showing its willingness to, if necessary, block the advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, or even launch a counterattack.
For this reason, the Russian Army is being drawn to the Ukrainian border in the regions of Rostov, Bryansk and Voronezh. In the south along the Krym bridge are convoys of armored vehicles.
With the needs of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, all railway platforms in the vicinity were requisitioned to transport tanks and self-propelled artillery units on them. This is explained by regular drills, which take place twice a year, in the spring and fall.
In recent years, however, the ad hoc check of the readiness of the Russian Armed Forces, in all military zones, has been raised and became the standard.
According to General Khomchak, Russia has gathered 28 combat battalions on the border. Is that more or less? Certainly not enough to reach Kiev, Odessa or Lviv.
If one merged the Russian combat groups with the Donetsk and Lugansk militias, there would be only one equivalent to Ukraine. That is, neither side has a decisive advantage to defeat the opponent convincingly.
The Russian army is seen as the “reserve” of the DPR and the LPR, they should become the ones to ensure that the Ukrainian side will not go too far and can defeat the separatist East, rather than taking the lead role, that is, fighting direct.
Another problem after this alignment lies on the other side of the conflict – the US doesn’t care at all about how many Ukrainians and Russians die there, says Marzhetsky.
It is important that Washington forces Moscow to send troops directly to the Donbass. And this could only be done by a massive and bloody war of attrition, when the forces of both Ukraine, the DPR and the LPR “burned to the ground” in the furnace.
The United States could achieve that goal by sending the Armed Forces of Ukraine with increasingly modern and dangerous weapons, with the help of military advisers and intelligence data.
A war of this kind could last not just six weeks, as in Nagorno-Karabakh, but six months of fierce fighting.
“If Washington decides to incite the Kremlin to launch the Russian Army into the war, they will support the armed conflict to the last Ukrainians,” concluded expert Sergey Marzhetsky.
- Tung Duong