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The UK is ready for the scenario of 100,000 cases of COVID-19 / day when it opens

Prime Minister Boris Johnson decided to enforce a strong reopening after July 19. Photo: Sky News

British Health Secretary Sajid Javid on July 6 said that from August 16, anyone who has been in close contact with a positive case of SARS-CoV-2 will not be required to self-isolate. if they have had two full doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. This rule also applies to children under the age of 18 who have not been vaccinated. Mr. Javid also confirmed that the British government is aiming to remove the isolation requirement for foreign visitors from the group of medium-risk countries and have had enough vaccines when entering the UK.

This is considered one of the government’s latest steps to return Britain to a normal life, encouraging the public to learn to live with COVID-19 after the majority of adults have been vaccinated.

“Promoting consumer and worker confidence must now become an absolute priority to support the economic recovery and learn to live with the virus. Relaxing self-isolation will help reduce disruption for both workers and employers,” said John Foster, policy director at the Confederation of British Industry, a lobbying group. The biggest of the business world, see.

As the government seeks to lift almost all of the regulations imposed over the past 15 months, there is also concern that the infection rate will spiral out of control. Some officials also warned that epidemic prevention measures may need to be re-imposed in the next few months.

Minister Javid himself also acknowledged that the number of new infections could skyrocket to 100,000 / day this summer, when the UK lifts epidemic prevention regulations from July 19 to. “As we approach the July 19 timeline, we expect the number of new cases to at least double the current level, or about 50,000 new infections per day. And after easing and entering the summer, we estimate this number will increase sharply, possibly reaching the threshold of 100,000 new cases / day”, Mr. Javid stated when appearing on BBC radio on 6 / 1. 7.

This is considered a record number, because during the worst outbreak of the disease in January, the number of new cases in the UK has never exceeded the threshold of 60,000 new cases / day. The decision to relax and remove the isolation regulation is considered a risky gamble by Prime Minister Johnson, who has witnessed the UK suffer the consequences of the number of deaths from COVID-19 leading in Europe, the economy economy suffered the most severe decline in decades.

He is betting that the success of the vaccination program means that even a sharp increase in new infections does not increase the number of deaths; The reopening will help the UK economy recover from the worst recession in three centuries.

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British people will have to learn to live with COVID-19. Photo: Getty Images

“We have nothing to hide here, very frank when it comes to quantifying new infections. But what is most concerning is the hospitalization and the number of deaths – here the relationship between the number of new cases increasing rapidly and the number of hospitalizations and deaths is no longer as positive as before, “Minister Javid stated. point. In the UK, 64% of adults have received two doses of the vaccine.

Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London and author of the research model used to make the first UK shutdown decision, said Johnson’s government appeared to be hitting the mark. a game of “small bets” when deciding to implement the reopening strategy.

The latest figures show that the UK on July 6 recorded 27,334 new infections, but only 9 deaths. At the peak of the second wave of infections, Ferguson explained, 50,000 infections equated to 500 deaths. But this time the number of deaths decreased much, only about less than 50 cases.

Asked if the current government was essentially pursuing a herd immunity strategy, Max Blain, the prime minister’s spokesman, said it was “delighted to reiterate, that Herd immunity is not a government policy goal.

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