(International relations) – Russian experts have made comments on how the protests in Belarus may affect the Russian economy?
The protests of Belarusian citizens started across the country on August 9, following the presidential election, resulting in the sixth victory, with the current Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko. According to the Central Election Commission, he won 80.1% of the vote, outstripping his closest candidate by just over 10%.
In the early days, the rallies were suppressed by security forces, against protesters who disagreed with the results, using tear gas, tornado, stun grenades, rubber bullets. After that, law enforcement stopped dissolving the demonstrations and did not use force.
According to official data, more than 6.7 thousand people were arrested in the first days. Hundreds of people were injured in the riots, according to a report by the Ministry of the Interior, including more than 120 law enforcement officers. According to the Belarusian Ministry of Health, two protesters were killed.
According to Minsk administration data, protests in this country have cost the economy at least 500 million USD. According to Valery Belsky, the presidential assistant to the financial and credit systems, $ 500 million is just an estimated damage at present and the indirect damage could be billions of dollars.
Mr. Valery Belsky said, Fitch Ratings has indicated that the political crisis creates risks for the national currency, the financial sector and the macro stability of the country.
The crisis in Minsk also had an impact on Moscow. Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union up to now, the Russian and Belarusian economies have been closely tied together, so there have been opinions expressing concern about the negative effects of the political crisis in Minsk to the Russian economy.
|Russia and Belarus have close relations both politically and economically|
Commenting on this issue, the General Director of the Financial and Banking Council of the Community of Independent States (FBC CIS), Mr. Pavel Nefidov, said that the losses from the political crisis in Belarus have an impact. to the Russian economy.
Mr. Pavel Nefidov said that up to this point, the situation in Belarus has not been so bad that it makes the economy of this country out of control. Russia closely monitors the situation and hopes that all problems arising in the election campaign will be resolved through negotiations.
According to him, if the negotiation results lead to stability, there will be no basis to worry. But if events in the “brother country” develop in an “uncontrollable” direction, the following negative effects will arise:
First: Belarus is Russia’s main transport corridor in trade relations with the EU and this will have a major effect on Russia.
Monday: Belarus has loans from Russia, and problems may arise with the solvency of those debts.
Tuesday: These are long-standing and successful programs of cooperation in the production and supply chains, and Russia cannot underestimate the interruption of one of its stages.
Therefore, any negative scenario in Belarus will affect the Russian economy and market. However, the magnitude of the impact, large or small, of negligible consequences, bad or very bad, depends on the political stability process in Belarus and Russia that also need to contribute to this issue.