Sino-US confrontation: There is no turning back
US strategic researchers have realized that China’s intention is to challenge the No. 1 position of the United States. Since the early years of the new millennium, Beijing has appeared in the Pentagon’s White Paper (annual report of the Pentagon to assess military and strategic risks for the United States). However, Washington was distracted after the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001, focusing its resources on anti-terrorism missions, pouring troops into the Iraqi battlefield, then Afghanistan …
Companies from the US are still lobbying the US government, maintaining a relationship with China to tap the market of more than 1 billion people, “how to sell a toothpick a day to every Chinese is good ”.
Five years ago, the US policeman gave a siren, unifying the policy to curb the rise of China. The image of the US President, Mr. Barack Obama, who at that time went to Beijing for a conference without proper diplomatic ceremonies, had to go down to the back of his plane without a trumpet to show the US a clear picture. about China’s disdain for China. Instead of being a cooperation partner and strategic partner, China has officially become a competitor in many aspects, from politics – diplomacy to economy – culture.
Many U.S. think tanks have stirred up Chinese resources pouring into information technology (IT), big data, and artificial intelligence (AI). with resources from both the United States and the EU combined! These are areas that will determine the world order in the near future. The US had to take action before letting China surpass it.
From punishing technology companies, technology intelligence organizations from China and Washington encroach on the economy by imposing tariffs on goods originating from the mainland, plunging into the ambition to threaten the position. No. 1 of the United States.
Looking back to Mainland. China has long been resentful of not being treated equally on world politics, plus the unrelenting humiliation invaded by the coalition of eight countries for 100 years (including the United States joining in raiding Beijing. ) in the 19th century. The Chinese have a national pride of 5,000 years of history. Over a period of more than 1,800 years, China and India have always been the first and second world powers in terms of geography, economy and population. The West has just emerged from the early 18th century, thanks to the application of scientific and technical achievements, reform of political systems, markets … “The newly emerging rich” is a phenomenon that China is determined to do. the challenge to reassert its position globally.
List of 8 invading countries, forcing Chinese people to buy opium (Photo: Internet)
Whether China advocates expansion is a big question to clarify. The generations of Chinese leaders who memorized the lesson of Confucius had seven times to take up the army to eradicate Manh Hoach in the South. Defeated all 7 times so that the vassals could pay attention to the uniforms, but they did not occupy them. Khong Minh said that the land is difficult to keep. Occupying, one day, the Court will lose face and lose prestige to other vassals. The case of Tibet being heavily suppressed since the Chinese Communist Party in power in 1949 is a special exception. Communist China cannot accept a religious capital as influential as Buddhism exists in its political system.
But China must be the navel of the world. China aspires to be respected. For three decades, China was hiding in business, accumulating assets, “working to recover,” waiting for the time given by Deng Xiaoping. Per capita income has increased rapidly and continuously over a period of more than three decades, a record in the history of economic development.
After the double-digit growth period, China still maintained at 6% -7%, while the US economy has entered the stage of maturity, it is difficult to grow highly, luckily only about 2% -3%. /year. The economic achievement outlines the prospect that China will surpass the US in terms of GDP thanks to a population 4 times larger than the US population. This has not only expanded Beijing’s influence in many ways, but has increasingly made Chinese people more confident, even arrogant.
How is the COVID-19 pandemic affecting the geopolitical balance?
The mobile epidemic moves to the US, increasing consensus between the US and the EU in an effort to contain China. In the opposite direction, China has more confidence to accelerate the intention of disputes with the US after the US and its allies exposed gaps in leadership capacity, crisis management system.
The percentage of American voters supporting Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden (Image: RealClearPolitics)
Recent poll results show that President Donald Trump is declining reputation with voters. Trump’s rival, Democratic candidate Joe Biden, has been quarantined in recent months but has surpassed Mr. Trump in recent surveys. Just 3 months ago, the public believed that Mr. Trump would stay one more term. The question is IF the Democratic candidate wins the White House race, will US-China tensions cool off? Fear that little has changed.
The difference between the two political parties in the United States in the main election content is domestic policy, while foreign policy is determined by the political elites. length, becoming an action manual no matter who the next president of the United States is. Also, do not forget that the highest consensus among the bipartisan currently is to regard China as a formidable opponent, a priority in its efforts to maintain America’s No. 1 position globally.
In the history of mankind, wars have often erupted as the number 2 became more powerful, complacent, and more dangerous was when they began to think that the number 1 was showing signs of recession. Naturally, No. 1 does not easily accept being usurped. The world is at this junction.
The No. 1 position usually has the right to proactively build the playing field and rules for the rest of the world, as the US has done for nearly 80 years, since World War II. And from then on, America has the right to control its own privileges. China has begun to refuse to allow the United States to roll on its own again.
USS Bunker Hill and USS Barry operate in the South China Sea (Image: US Navy)
Beyond the economic sphere, Beijing and Washington will continue to increase their military influence in the South China Sea. This front is being viewed by both sides as its grave.
For China, the South China Sea is the backyard, the entrance of 70% -80% of goods transported by sea. The worst scenario for China is the US using military bases in South Korea, Japan and the 7th Fleet to blockade the South China Sea blocking China’s supply lines. Within a week, China will suffocate and blush. No Chinese strategist can accept such an extreme strategic risk.
For its part, the United States cannot take its eyes off the South China Sea. With just a hint, the strategic allies of the United States will immediately become vassals of China, giving China a stronger wing. America will immediately lose its position as world leader even in the eyes of close allies. This is a scenario that Americans also cannot accept, pushing the two countries into a state of irreconcilable negotiations. Tension will continue to escalate, possibly to local conflicts.
The likelihood of full-scale military conflict between the two superpowers is low because both sides fear fear of uncontrolled escalation. China will adopt a gradual strategy to avoid provocation that would force the United States to intervene heavily.
But China will be strong on other fronts, especially radically restricting the unique position of the dollar. China will rely on its regional and global economic and trade influence to promote the yuan, including the virtual currency. China has begun and will shortly ask its business partners to use the yuan in commercial contracts.
The unburdened situation is an opportunity for Southeast Asian countries. The countries in the region will be constantly holding two superpowers. The position of the façade of the East Sea makes Vietnam in the order of priority, especially China always tries to find ways to dominate the neighbor, consolidating the power counterweight to the US and its allies.
Whoever wins and who loses depends on the ability of a national leader to balance the strategic problem between the values that can be gained from the holdings of the two superpowers, compared to concessions.