In the United States, where severe measures against new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) such as restrictions on going out have been taken, intense protests are being conducted over the pros and cons of the city blockade (lockdown). However, two newly published papers showed that “policies such as lockdown actually had the effect of significantly suppressing the expansion of COVID-19.”
The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic-s41586-020-2404-8_reference.pdf
(PDF file) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8_reference.pdf
Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe-s41586-020-2405-7_reference.pdf
(PDF file) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7_reference.pdf
Lockdowns May Have Helped Prevent Half a Billion Covid Cases-Bloomberg
Lockdown and school closures in Europe may have prevented 3.1m deaths | Imperial News | Imperial College London
According to WHO statistics, the number of people infected with COVID-19 reached 7,145,539 at the time of writing, and the death toll reached 408,025. In order to respond to such damage from COVID-19, large-scale lockdowns were implemented around the world.
Solomon Hsiang and colleagues studying public policy at the University of California, Berkeley have conducted research in the United States, China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, and France to verify the effectiveness of COVID-19 measures that have been implemented to date. We have collected data on public health measures taken. We then apply the econometric guided model approach, which is used to measure the effects of economic policies, to assess the effectiveness of the measures taken in each country and simulate the damage if no measures are taken. did.
As a result, it was revealed that if no measures were taken in the early stages of the outbreak of COVID-19, the number of infected people would have increased by an average of approximately 38% per day. Taking this into consideration, the estimated results of the number of confirmed cases diagnosed as COVID-19 by the test “when no measures were taken” and the total number of cases including potential infected persons who failed the test are as follows. It became as follows.
China: 37 million confirmed cases, 285 million total cases
Korea: 11.5 million confirmed cases, 38 million total cases
Italy: 2.1 million confirmed cases, 49 million total cases
Iran 5 million confirmed cases, 54 million total cases
France: 1.4 million confirmed cases, 45 million total cases
USA: 4.8 million confirmed cases, 60 million total cases
Total: 61.8 million confirmed cases, 513 million total cases
Among the various policies, “Lockdown”, “Home separation” and “Business suspension” were most effective. Furthermore, in Italy and Iran, “travel restrictions” and “ban on meetings” also showed effects, but the effect in the United States was not clear. In addition, “school closure” did not have a clear effect in any region, and the research team concluded, “more research is needed to assess the impact of school closure.”
Mr. Hsiang said, “If the policy to prevent the spread of COVID-19 from spreading was delayed a little, it would have been dramatically different from today.” I said.
Another study showed similar results. Samir Bhatt and colleagues studying infectious diseases at Imperial College London use data from the European Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain and Sweden. We surveyed the number of COVID-19 cases in March-May 2020 in 11 countries, Switzerland, and the UK. Based on the fatality rate and the actual number of infected persons, which was calculated back from the time lag from infection to death, we calculated the “transition of COVID-19 infected persons under current public health measures” and Changes in the number of infected people” were calculated and compared.
The results are shown in the graph below.The red part shows the number of people infected with COVID-19 when public health measures were taken, and the blue part shows the number of people infected with COVID-19 when no public health measures were taken. Is represented. As a result of comparing the changes in the numbers of the two infected people, it was found that the number of deaths decreased due to the effects of public health measures reached 3.1 million.
According to Samir Bhatt, “This study suggests that the number of infected people in European countries is far higher than previously estimated, but at the same time lockdown etc. must be done. We also knew that more deaths might have occurred, so we need to continue to carefully consider continuing measures to control the spread of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).” Said.