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“PUBG Mobile” and “Fortnite” are successively restricted. How much influence does it have on the tactical competitive market?


There seem to be many cracks in the iron plate of the global tactical competitive mobile game market.

Different from other categories, the entry of many mature manufacturers in the early years quickly solidified the tactical competitive mobile game market, resulting in a situation where many giants held the right to speak. Among them, “Free Fire” dominates Southeast Asia, “Operation Wilderness” dominates the Japanese market, and the Chinese market is held tightly by “Peace Elite”, while the remaining regions are jointly owned by “PUBG Mobile” and “Fortress Night”. This pattern has been going on for a period of time. After entering 2020, the home isolation policy makes the advantages of products such as “PUBG Mobile” and “Fortress Night” more significant.

However, changes are often caught off guard. The official announcement of the “Fortnite” mobile game landing on Google Play has just been negotiated at the end of April. A series of disputes that occurred in August has completely blocked the possibility of “Fortnite” landing on Google Play and App Store. dead. On August 13, “Fortnite” was removed from the App Store and Google Play one after another, and players could no longer update the game.

The “PUBG Mobile” was restricted in the Indian market. On September 2, the Ministry of Information Technology of India released “PUBG Mobile” on the grounds of “damaging Indian sovereignty and integrity, Indian defense, national security and public order”. 118 mobile apps developed by Chinese companies in this section were blocked.

Regarding the impact of the above two events on the tactical competitive mobile game market, some data websites have conducted corresponding statistics.

Recently, Sensor Tower released a series of data on the mobile terminal of Fortnite, and conducted a detailed analysis of the market gap caused by the departure of Fortnite and the future trend of the tactical competitive mobile game market.

It is reported that since “Fortress Night” landed on the App Store in March 2018, its total revenue has reached 1.2 billion US dollars. In terms of Google Play, due to the late landing time and the limited payment enthusiasm of players, the total revenue of “Fortress Night” in less than 4 months was only $9.7 million. In terms of downloads, the total number of downloads of the mobile game “Fortnite” is nearly 144 million, of which 133 million are from the App Store and 11 million are from Google Play.

If you look at this problem ideally, when Epic Games’ “Fortnite” is officially removed from the App Store and Google Play on August 13, 2020, there will be a gap of up to $1.2 billion in the tactical competitive mobile game market. Fill.

In terms of “PUBG Mobile”, according to the data of Qimai, in the past year, except for November 30, 2019, December 13, and July 4, 2020, “PUBG Mobile” was listed as an app in the Indian market for all the remaining time. Store tops the best-selling list, it can be said to be the first choice for Indian players.

However, the Indian market has its own special point, that is, the “monetization” problem. On April 28, 2020, The Passage.com, together with Alibaba Cloud and Cashfree, held a sharing session with the theme of “Games Going to India at the Time”. At the meeting, MiniJoy founder Wang Pengyu said frankly: “India does have a huge user base, but The willingness to pay is extremely low”.

This is very obvious in “PUBG Mobile”. According to Sensor tower data, in the first half of 2020, the number of downloads of “PUBG Mobile” in India reached 175 million times, accounting for 29% of the total downloads, ranking No. 1 in the global market. One, but in terms of revenue, the value contributed by the Indian market only accounts for 0.17% of total revenue. Since “PUBG Mobile” was launched in major overseas markets, India ranked first with 155.5 million downloads, accounting for 24% of all downloads; China ranked second with 16.4%, while the United States ranked third with 6.3%. In terms of revenue, excluding China, there are nearly 1.7 billion US dollars in total revenue. Among them, the United States ranked first with 29% of total income, Japan ranked second with 12% of total income, and Saudi Arabia ranked third with 8.8%.

In all fairness, the delisting of the Indian market can indeed have a greater impact on the data of “PUBG Mobile”, but the real response to the income level is extremely limited.

The above data is the results of “PUBG Mobile” and “Fortnite” in the separated market in the first half of 2020. These data account for a large proportion of the current tactical competitive mobile game market, and there may be more The big influence is hidden in the shadows.

1.

For “Fortress Night”, the core issue to worry about is whether its users will really abandon “Fortress Night” if it is removed from the App Store and Google Play.

In all fairness, during the epidemic, “Fortress Night” performed well. According to Sensor Tower data, from 2020 to the present, the total revenue of “Fortress Night” mobile game reached 293 million US dollars, with an average monthly revenue of 36.625 million US dollars, of which nearly 2.83 Million dollars comes from the App Store. If the mobile game is removed, whether this part of the revenue will fall into the hands of others, the answer is not necessarily.

The reason for the uncertainty is that we are unable to determine whether users of the mobile game “Fortnite” only play “Fortnite” on their mobile phones. Because of the multi-platform interaction mechanism of “Fortnite”, players can transfer data to other platforms Transfer, and play games on other devices in the future, then the revenue of these users will be transferred together with the users, and finally will belong to “Fortress Night”. But there will also be some users who are only users of the mobile game “Fortnite”, some of them will only play “Fortnite”, some will only play the mobile game, and some will play other games at the same time. Eating chicken games means that this part may not be transferred to other platforms with “Fortnite”, so this part of the revenue, “Fortnite” will be difficult to capture.

Based on the above uncertainty, Buy Shares, a well-known stock trading and financial investment advisory website, has estimated the loss of “Fortnite” from the shelves. It said: “From the perspective of the App Store alone, this delisting will cost Epic an average of $26.7 million per month.”

In the seven days after “Fortnite” was removed from the shelves, the weekly revenue of “Call of Duty: Mobile” in the United States increased by 69% month-on-month. This is the positive effect of the latter’s addition of the chicken game. This means that some players have begun to transfer their desire to eat chicken mobile games to other games. The same situation has also occurred in the Indian market, which will be mentioned below in the article.

Previously, Epic Games launched a new payment channel in “Fortnite” to bypass the 30% platform share in Apple and Google’s payment systems. This was also the case that it was removed from the two major app stores on August 13 Fuse. As for how big the gap is, an accurate data will be revealed soon. In-game performances are often the best moments of the year for “Fortnite”. The Travis Scott concert in April this year attracted more than 12.3 million players for “Fortnite”. It is reported that Epic Games has set up a new studio in Los Angeles and plans to hold large-scale concert events in the game on September 12, September 19, and September 26, Eastern Time. This event will Roughly explore the impact of the removal on “Fortress Night”.

2.

After “PUBG Mobile” leaves the Indian market, will it be blocked by other manufacturers?

From the actual situation, after “PUBG Mobile” was removed from the Indian market, some Indian users did begin to empathize. Previously, there were mainly two tactical competitive games in the Indian market. They were published by publishers headquartered in China and Singapore. The former is “PUBG Mobile” and the latter is “Free Fire”. In the positive case, “Free Fire” Will become the biggest beneficiary of the delisting of “PUBG Mobile”.

According to data from Qimai, in the past week, “Free Fire” has gradually risen from No. 5 to No. 1 on the Indian App Store bestseller list. In addition, “Call of Duty Mobile Games” has also risen from No. 14 to No. 6 . In terms of the free list, the rankings of the two games both improved slightly on September 2. Currently, “Call of Duty Mobile Games” topped the list, followed by “Free Fire”.

The left and right are the recent free lists of “Call of Duty Mobile” and “Free Fire”

The emergence of this part of the data, to a certain extent, indicates that the previous users of “PUBG Mobile” are being diluted by “Free Fire” and other mobile games.

However, Tencent will not give up a market with such a huge population, but it is not difficult to return to the Indian market. The latest news shows that PUBG Corporation, a subsidiary of Blue Hole’s PUBG global operation, has issued a statement stating that it will give current developments and no longer “PUBG Mobile” licensed the franchise rights in India to Tencent Games, and instead assumes the responsibility of publishing the game in the Indian market.

The retreat of “PUBG Mobile” hurts more of the e-sports industry layout that Tencent will build around “PUBG Mobile”. The Indian market’s sense of identity with the e-sports industry is gradually increasing. In the hearts of some Indian people, “PUBG Mobile” is closer to a competitive sport, which can give lovers space to release value. In addition, India is a country with a clear caste system, and the emergence of events related to “PUBG Mobile” also provides an upward path for the bottom people.

Mortal, a slum-born young Indian e-sports star

The ban of “PUBG Mobile” may make Tencent’s series of operations make wedding dresses for others. If there are manufacturers in India interested in the layout of the e-sports industry, they will most likely rise quickly on the soil that Tencent has laid out.


Author: resolutely
Source: Game Think Tank
Address: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XwqKeR8You0wVDv7m32LDg

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