Only an attack by the United States and Israel can stop Iran’s process of making nuclear weapons. But surely Russia to Iran was surprised.
Introducing the new article with the title and subtitle of a military expert, Colonel, former commander of the missile division on the anti-submarine Xergey Ishenko. The post was on “Svobodnaia Pressa” on January 8, 2020. We have added a map to make it easier to visualize.
|On the photo: Protesting protest in Tehran after the death of General Kassem Suleimani (Image: dpa / image of alliance / TASS)|
Doomsday is increasingly clear from the Middle East. One more clear proof of this possibility – on the day 1/7/2020, at the Orthodox Easter, President (Russia) Vladimir Putin flew unexpectedly to Syria and had an unintended meeting with the head of this country, the President Bashar Assad.
Right in the night 8/1 later, Iran claims to have launched a massive missile attack on a US military base in Ain al-Assad on Iraqi territory. Iranian state-run television stations officially issued a call to conduct a vengeful campaign against the assassination of General Qassem Suleimani.
The radar station off the horizon of Russia ‘Containers’ started on duty
But- let’s turn points in sequence.
First, in response to the US murder of Gen. Suleimani in Baghdad, Iran declared that it unilaterally rejected (refused to comply) one of the last remaining major constraints to the development of its nuclear program. According to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA – also known as the Iran Nuclear Agreement or the Iran-ND Agreement) – it is limited in the number of uranium enriched centrifuges.
By doing so, Tehran eloquently demonstrated to the world its “desire” to bring America’s worst nightmare to Israel “into life” – the ability to own the first nuclear bomb. My own first within a few months.
Facing Iran’s decisive action, President Donald Trump responded immediately and very bluntly. It was also “compact” in almost the same way that a few days earlier he had ordered “handling” General Suleymani. On his Twitter page, D.Trump wrote: “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”
And to prove that it was not a complete threat, a heroic statement, on January 7, the Pentagon ordered the B-52 strategic bomber from the main air base. Barksdale in Louisiana USA to the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
On the same day (January 7), the first 6 giant B-52s made a transcontinental flight from the US to the Indian Ocean.
At the Hill State Utah military base, the US Air Force conducted the largest-ever military exercise with the participation of 5th-generation F-35 multirole fighters from air regiments. fighters number 88 and 419.
There were 52 F-35 aircraft launched at the same time. Pilots participating in the drills carry out offensive exercises to destroy enemy air-defense vehicles on the ground.
Around the same time, the Israeli Army was ordered to enter a state of high combat readiness. The aforementioned (strong military) moves set in such a political context are perfectly logical: until now, apart from the mass air attacks, there have obviously been no more. who can afford to stop Iran’s nuclear program.
In the “mind” waiting for the retaliation of the Persians, on the same day (January 7), the US Maritime Administration issued an official warning to the captain of all commercial (civil) ships. about threats from Iran in the Middle East.
“The Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean – (those are places of threat),” the official statement said. from Iran and Iranian puppets to commercial vessels “.
According to information from the Arab newspaper “Al-Mayadin”, the US Navy Command ordered US warships in the attack carrier group including the carrier “Harry Trumen” to immediately maneuver back. out, a few hundred kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz to avoid being hit by coastal anti-ship missiles. The above order has been taken seriously.
It seems that Tehran is well aware of what all of this (the US move) will smell (what the U.S. intentions are). And, analysts have the same feeling – Iran is trying in every way possible to buy time, delaying this “almost inevitable” end.
The permanent representative of this country (Iran) at the United Nations, he Majid Taht-Ravanchi, claiming that Iran has absolutely no intention of trying to own nuclear weapons, despite having unilaterally decided not to continue implementing (the terms) of the Nuclear Agreement.
And here is a quote from an interview with the Permanent Representative (of Iran at the UN) with PBS Television: “No, we are not interested in making nuclear weapons. For us (Iran), there has been a ban on possession of nuclear weapons from our Supreme Deity Leader. ”
But if so, why would there be such a threatening, ostentatious “physical motion” with centrifuges?
As a reminder, under the 2015 Trump nuclear deal, Iran committed to keep only 2% of its enriched uranium on its own territory. (it is about 300 kg).
What’s more – cutting the number of centrifuges used from 20,000 to 5,000 and not producing uranium enriched to the point of making nuclear warheads.
In exchange for the signature (of Iran) under the aforementioned restrictions (for Iran), the West was forced to “defrost” the accounts of the Iranian Government in foreign banks with a total value of more than 100 billion USD. .
His billion (100 billion) dollars, of course, have long hidden Teheran in much safer places (compared to previous ND-banks). Regarding the remaining provisions, the agreement has long been invalidated.
From November 2019, the President Hassan Rouhani announced to start activating centrifuges at the factory in Fordo to enrich uranium to the level of 5%. According to Iranian Atomic Energy Organization figures, prior to the signing of the 2015 Nuclear Agreement, uranium at the Fordo facility was enriched to 20%.
After the assassination of General Suleimani, nothing could stop Iran from secretly bringing its horrific factory to Americans and Israelis back to the level of production it once had. Then what?
Experts calculate: The aforementioned enterprise can produce 42 kg of nuclear fuel per month at the required purity level. To build a complete nuclear warhead – about 250 kg is needed.
Consequently, the first “small nuclear bomb” of the Persians could appear in about 5 to 6 months. This is around the end of summer-early autumn 2020.
As for the religious ban on the creation of the Supreme Leader’s nuclear weapons … Today he (the Cardinal), perhaps, and in fact issued such a ban. .
Tomorrow, when the technical conditions of the Fordo Plant are ripe, the order of the Archbishop may be replaced by the exact opposite decision.
After all, the Persians still need a certain amount of time to accumulate enough uranium enriched to the point of being used as weapons. Before that time, it may (and even be necessary, from a macro-political point of view) that Iran can swear to the United Nations anything!
Certainly the United States and Israel will not remain silent and accept to be obediently submissive audiences in this extremely impressive theater. (Scenario) A Western land attack on Iran to eliminate the nuclear threat is completely excluded.
The Iranian army with 350,000 gunmen is too strong, too well trained and equipped with weapons and weapons that are too modern. And yet, a very significant force in the Army has accumulated a lot of valuable combat experience during the war in Syria.
In the opinion of the newspaper across the ocean (ie US-ND) The National Interest, there are some weapons that Iran possesses “extremely dangerous” for US soldiers. These are “Sajjil” ballistic missiles with a range of up to 2,500 km, “Gadir” submarines, “Khalidzh-e Fars” anti-ship missiles and Russian S-300 air defense missile systems.
Yes, and in neighboring Iraq, Americans have long been unpopular (and deserve it).
Most likely, in such a purely hypothetical military conflict, the current Baghdad government (Iraq) will stand with any American opponent in the Middle East (to fight the US). -ND). And so, will greatly expand the spatial scale of such a war.
There is only one relatively fast and relatively reliable solution to solve the Iranian nuclear problem – that is (the US and Israel) conduct a very fast, extremely space-space campaign. strong to crush – destroy Iran’s entire nuclear industry.
But it is here (in this story) that things seem “very fragile” to the Pentagon.
According to US analyst Scott Johnson working for HIS Jane`s consulting firm, who evaluated a number of possible risks a few years ago under a US Department of Defense order, if the events develop in that direction (progress). During the air offensive, the Allies will be forced to attack four main bases in Iran – the Urani enrichment plants in Natanz and Fordo, a reactor. to produce “heavy water” in Arak and a factory producing uranium hexafluoride in Isfahan.
But even in such a case, the chance of a successful campaign is not great.
Firstly, the main “splinter” for Americans and Israelis – the Fordo enrichment factory – is carefully calculated, deep within a rocky mountain range. And also the main facilities of the factory in Natanz- these facilities are protected by layers of concrete walls up to 10m thick.
Second, suppose that, in order for the Israelis to attack nuclear facilities on Iranian territory, their planes must fly at least one of the following two routes. Or use the aerial corridor through Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Or choose a route to fly over Jordan and Iraq. In both cases, it was forced to refuel in the air. In addition, considering the political issues that exist in the relationship between the US and Turkey and Iraq, it is difficult to rely on the hospitality of these countries in their airspace.
Just this one thing has enough Israeli Air Force out of the game. Only the United States remains. And the (most vulnerable) attack for Iran is from the Indian Ocean. Which is – right from the direction that the first American strategic bombers (6 B-52s as mentioned at the beginning) landed on January 7 as stated.
Thirdly, since 2016, the combat capability of Iran’s air defense (air defense) system has increased significantly.
Iran’s air defense capability improved as Russia, after long-lived political pains, finally transferred four modern S-300 PMU-2 air defense missile battalions to the land. this country.
The period of time (2016) until now has certainly allowed the Persian rocket batteries’ officers to master this computer weapon.
Fourthly, special attention should be paid to an urgent telephone conversation on January 6, 2020 between the Russian Defense Minister. Sergey Shoigu with the Chief of Staff of the Iran Armed Forces Mohammad Bagheri and Director of Turkey’s National Intelligence Agency Hakan Fidan.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense’s very wordless announcement on this issue, the military leaders discussed “practical steps to halt the escalation of situation in Syria and the Middle East.” in connection with the assassination of General Kassem Suleimani, the commander of the task force (special forces) “al-Quds” on the outskirts of Baghdad “.
But the moves “showing determination” from Moscow did not stop there. As the Kremlin Press reported, on January 7, 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to postpone the Easter celebration to fly urgently (with Su-35 fighter escorts) to Damascus, – the place where the relationship was long and well known to Tehran.
Together with Defense Minister Shoigu, the head of our state “went to inspect the Russian Army Headquarters in the Syrian Arab Republic, walking through the streets of Damascus”.
What could be “practical steps” on our side in the current situation? Of course, Moscow will not use its military power to intervene publicly in a “ripe” conflict between the US and Iran. But on the other hand, our Army will certainly not sit still in a trench corner.
The problem is that – in the Iranian air defense system, there are things that we, though we don’t need to be so risky, can still provide the Persians with a support that is “not in words” (secretly). -ND), but it is extremely valuable to the Persians if a surprise attack from above does not occur.
First of all – it is timely information on situations in the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea.
To carry out this task, it is no more suitable than the powerful radars of the S-400 “Triumph” air defense missile systems that Russia is arranging in Syria.
And what’s more – the first “Container” off-shore radar station has just launched into service this year in the Nizhny Novgorod province and is part of our Missile Strike Warning System (Russia) ( we introduced this radar station in “The radar station off the horizon of Russia ‘Containers’ started on duty”, DVO, December 2, 2019-ND).
The observation radius of this modern radar is up to 3,000 km. That capability allows tracking and mastering aerial situations from the North Pole to the Middle East.
Naturally, even (Moscow) would do so in the face of serious political problems in Moscow’s relationship with Washington and Tel Aviv.
But at the same time, it is also important to understand that in the event of a real hostilities in the skies over Iran, we (Russia) will certainly not be able to sit aside to look. There are too many things binding Moscow to Tehran.
From the issue of oil prices on all the world’s exchanges to the possibility of continuing (Russia’s) operation in Syria.
Because, in order to maintain the operational capability of the Russian Army in Syria, the “Road of Life” is actually Khmeimim Air Base.
The aircraft of the Russian Air Force Transport want to fly to Khmeimim now have to fly over the Caspian Sea, and then – through Iranian and Iraqi airspace. If the outbreak of the war severed this “provision of servants” for a long time, Moscow would be forced to end the operation in Syria.
Because only a few large amphibious ships and the Russian Navy’s guaranteed ships will not be able to save the situation. Right now, these ships are already working so hard.
For us, such a situation development scenario in the Middle East would immediately mean everything turned upside down, sincere head and head sincere.
But – how to deal with a hypothetical Iranian Cluster’s nuclear bomb – a bomb that would not bring anything so good to Russia itself?
But that – now, unfortunately, the people with the most obligations and responsibilities to resolve are others rather than us (Russia).
First of all, it was Donald Trump, – himself who has recently caused the most trouble in the Middle East – more than any other “elephant” in a tight closet. There was only one way out – to show remorse before the Persians and beg them to quickly sign a new “nuclear agreement”.
Yes, that would be too humiliating for an American country full of pride. But if you don’t do that to get a Middle East “nuclear bomb” on your forehead, America will be in even worse pain.
- Le Hung – Nguyen Hoang (Translate)