|In the photo: Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko (Image: AP / TASS)|
Alexander Lukashenko’s anticipated victory in the presidential election in Belarus led to a wave of protest in Minsk and a number of other cities that were also anticipated.
Another scenario was previously voiced by one of the NATO countries, predicting a “color revolution” for Belarus. And, the next consequence will be Russian intervention, through Belarus, to occupy the entire Baltic region.
In the Estonian military intelligence report last year, a new theory of external threats was presented – through the “color revolution” in Belarus, to be exact.
“Our assessment is that if something undesirable happens to President Alexander Lukashenko or his regime personally, then there is a great risk that Russia will act rapidly militarily to prevent Belarus from becoming one. pro-Western country. “
The intelligence report also emphasized that Estonia is a member of NATO and that it will be easier for Russia to attack the alliance from the Baltic countries.
It is not by accident that Belarus is mentioned in this context because it is the only country that belongs to the former Soviet republics and is a member of the Warsaw Pact, independent of the United States.
Officially dependent on the United States, not NATO in general, because the North Atlantic Alliance itself no longer appears to be a single institution and, in fact, is being transformed into two blocs.
The so-called EuroNATO, at the initiative of Germany and France, is trying to separate from the US and a new NATO from Eastern European countries, which obeyed Washington’s policy unconditionally. These are mainly Poland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
If you look at the map, you will see that around the western border of Russia is creating an arc of countries that the United States is bringing in weapons, including missile defense systems and features. to the deployment of cruise missiles, including those that carry nuclear warheads.
And here, Belarus is an obvious “obstacle” to NATO’s encirclement of Russia in this direction, so people are trying to impose Minsk the Maidan scenario of Kiev, which takes place in 2013-2014.
To do this, the West contemplated the need to eliminate Lukashenko, which would inevitably bring about the collapse of the Union State, rifting relations between Belarus and Russia, resulting in the opening of Belarusian territory. out for NATO forces to infiltrate and the siege will tighten. This is just a hypothetical scenario, which cannot be realized temporarily.
The danger is that Lukashenko is having an intimate conversation with the West, in danger of losing Moscow’s support. It should be noted that Lukashenko has a not bad relationship with the United States.
As early as June 2009, a delegation of the US Congress made an official visit to Belarus – a new phase of bilateral relations began. Since 2013, the partnership at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the two countries has been strengthened.
In September 2014, the first Belarus-US Investment Forum was held in the United States, the Minsk side was the presence of Prime Minister Mikhail Myasnikov. In February 2015, Lukashenko himself met with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Eric Rubin.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Minsk in February this year, after which President Lukashenko declared a priority partnership with the United States, could be seen as the last step of restoring US friendship- Belarus.
It seems that Lukashenko is deliberately blurring relations with Russia, as evidenced by the detention of a group of “Wagner” in Minsk the night before the election. But that is only the ruse of Lukashenko, who is trying by all means to preserve his power.
Mr Lukashenko desperately needed this “Wagner effect” to gain the support of a part of the opposition that opposed the close relationship between Minsk and Moscow.
After receiving the expected effect, he immediately turned in the opposite direction: “On the prospect, if someone expected that our relationship with Russia had completely deteriorated they were wrong.
Russian President and I will make a decision, and there is no media, no Wagners and others can influence this, “- Lukashenko said after a phone call with Putin.
Currently, many experts believe that in the difficult conditions of relations with Moscow, Lukashenko is trying to find a balance in his meetings with the West, but it is unlikely that Belarus will reorient. This is especially true of military cooperation between Russia and Belarus.
Here we can refer to the number of Russian permanent troops in Belarus – there are two large military facilities here: the Volga radar station in Gantsevichi (near Baranovichi) and the 43rd naval communications center in Vileika.
The first facility was placed on active duty in October 2003, as part of a missile attack warning system, and Russia leased it until 2020.
The second facility provides communications between the Russian Naval General Staff and nuclear submarines on duty in the Atlantic, Indian and partial Pacific regions.
It is likely that Russian military experts are currently present at many other facilities, including air defense systems.
“Nothing will change military cooperation between Russia and Belarus,” said Alexei Leonkov, a military expert at Arsenal of the Nation magazine. And the bottom line here is not only for President Lukashenko, but the mutual interests of the two countries related to their defense capabilities.
The two countries have a common air defense system, Russia provides Belarus with a variety of weapons and military equipment on free or preferential terms, as is the case with the transfer of the S-400 air defense missile system. year 2016.
The two countries are also conducting many joint military exercises, the largest of which is the Zapad-2017 exercise, taking place in the territory of the two countries.
The military alliance between Russia and Belarus is tied to dozens of documents; The principles of cooperation in a common defense policy are detailed in the Military Cooperation Agreement ”.
Here, it is necessary to take into account the fact that the disruption of military cooperation will not benefit the two countries, especially for Belarus. In fact, Belarus will be left alone with the entire NATO bloc and will receive threats from Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, where US troops are stationed.
Minsk is well aware of this and understands that Belarus’ sovereignty is mainly in Russian support. At the same time, there would be no unexpected armed invasion.
Lukashenko probably does not want a situation “like in Ukraine”. It seems that he will try to put things in its place in relations with Russia, but in military cooperation, he could even move forward to expand together against the West.
Nguyen Quang (According to “Military Commentary” Russia)