(International relations) – Any decision that increases the price of oil and gas and increases the share of Russian oil in the US market is in Russia’s favor.
|New US President Joe Biden signed a decree to stop the pipeline project with Canada|
As we all know, during his presidency, Trump was always sought by Democrats to find all the evidence to accuse of being “Russian agents”. Yet, as US Secretary of State Pompeo said, since the Cold War, the Trump administration has been the most powerful anti-Russia administration of all US presidents.
The US press has made 34 decisions or 34 attacks of President Trump against Russia which are fierce and tough that Dat Viet newspaper has published. However, in those 34 attacks, it seems that Trump’s withdrawal from the INF seems like “Russia just waits for that.” OK immediately and always, in addition, makes Russia difficult.
Mr Trump withdrew from the INF, for Russia this was a way to relieve the loss of military superiority on medium-range missiles that the Soviet Union-Russia signed with the US at that time. Accordingly, all medium-range missile weapons with a range of 500-5,000 km on the mainland were removed. Meanwhile, this type of missile is located at sea (on warships), the US has but Russia does not.
After Russia had this missile in the air and at sea, the US felt that the period of strategic dominance with Russia was no longer available, so the US withdrew from the INF to take advantage of geostrategic advantages (NATO has around Russia) deploy short-range and medium-range missiles in Europe to target Russia with flight times of 5-7 minutes.
So Mr. Trump’s withdrawal from the INF is also not a medium that Trump deliberately designated the Russian-American confrontation battlefield in Europe, which means that the US sits from afar and directs Europe to fight with Russia. Legendary “inviolable” defense of America.
After all, the US withdrew from the INF, although it benefited and untied Russia, but on the other hand Russia was under strong pressure from the strategic target, NATO Europe. Obviously, we haven’t found a single Trump decision that would benefit Putin.
Now, talking about the new US President Joe Biden’s attitude towards Russia as tough and fierce as Trump or not, it will take time, but let’s see how General Aug Biden’s first moves …
After taking office, the Biden decree signed the first is to cancel the Keystone XL oil pipeline project worth $ 8 billion with Canada – Trump’s legacy wants to bring heavy oil from Canada to the US. Outraged Canadians, the governor of Alberta, who invested his money in the pipeline and hopes to take taxes from its operations, demanded revenge.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said: “We are very disappointed with the president’s decision about his election promise on Keystone XL.” But the Governor of Alberta was frank, frustrated with The New York Post:
“This is a blow to the economies of Canada and Alberta. This is an insult to America’s most important trading partner and ally during the first day of administration. That’s not how you treat your friends. ”
Of course, when signing this decree, President Biden could not help but think of a series of US refineries with raw materials mainly heavy oil that after embargoing Iran, Venezuela had to buy a large amount of heavy oil. Ural of Russia. So what will the US do to keep America’s petrochemical refineries running?
Since the US only produces shale oil as light oil, here are the alternatives to import:
1, Importing oil from Venezuela and Iran is not possible.
2, Iraq will supply the US with this heavy oil at high prices. This means that the US has to pay some money to Iraq for Iraq to pay for Iran’s gas and electricity bills, supporting the Iranian economy – which the US cannot accept.
3, the US may try to pull some heavy oil from Mexico and Colombia to the US (beyond what has been provided), but first, it will be very expensive, and second, everything is contracted at max.
4, And finally imported from Russia. This is the most feasible option because it has been, is being implemented. Russia’s heavy oil sources are endless, high-quality, yet affordable.
In fact, Russia has become the fourth largest oil supplier to the United States. The latest available data from the US Energy Information Administration on supply volumes from October – when it was 660 thousand barrels. So, when Russia was, is, there is no reason not to be able to continue …
The logic of the matter is: Any project that increases the US supply of heavy oil from alternative sources other than Russia is negative for Russia. Therefore, Biden’s decision to stop the Keystone XL oil pipeline project with Canada indirectly helped Russia increase its share of heavy oil in the US market.
In addition, Mr. Biden’s environmental initiatives have abolished Trump’s “America First” legacy such as: The ban on drilling in the Arctic reserve (Mr. Trump allows drilling in the Arctic. ) and going back to the Paris Agreement (Mr. Trump withdrew from) will also have quite a positive impact on the global energy market in the short term.
We say it is short-term because to phase out the use of fossil fuels and switch to renewable energy sources is not a day or two, so for the time being, there is still demand for oil and gas energy. urgent. And, of course, oil and gas prices will increase with demand. Bank ANZ, predicts that it will reach 60 USD / barrel this year.
Therefore, we can wish the new US President Joe Biden successfully in his struggle for a “green” future, but for now, until now, the oil and gas industry, including the Russian industry, is in peace. interest …
Here, a problem posed is that former US President Donald Trump and new US President Joe Biden who are beneficial to Russia, in a funny way, who is “Putin’s agent”?
For Mr. Donald Trump, his decrees signed tough, fiercely anti-Russia, and for Joe Bieden, the first decrees were to remove Mr. Trump’s legacy but indirectly benefit Russia … although later it was not clear how the Biden administration’s determination to fight Russia …
In return, if Republicans are not Democrats, perhaps US President Joe Biden will be accused of “in favor of Russia” at all.
- Le Ngoc Thong