The day Mr. Joe Biden took office as president of the United States (January 20, 2021) is approaching, analysts are focusing their attention on the main features of the new US administration’s foreign policy.
Aside from the confrontation with China, the currently not so good relationship with Russia is the issue of most concern. In particular, experts predict that the US-Russia relationship under Biden will be different from its predecessor, Donald Trump.
Mr. Biden’s views on Russia
Over the past four years, Moscow has shown little interest in its western border. This is evident in the high level of Russian participation in key geopolitical regions across Eurasia during the presidency of President Trump – a consequence of Washington’s disregard. European issues at that time.
Moscow’s silent response to Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election shows negative signs in the bilateral relationship between the two countries. Russian political elites seem to be preparing for a more adversarial US foreign policy. And their premonition did not seem wrong.
Nearly all of the concepts in Washington’s foreign policy over the next four to eight years are intended to undermine Russia’s position abroad, including: securing America’s global leadership; Protect and consolidate the weak free world order; Promote democracy and basic human rights; Prevent the rise of powers building up privileged spheres across Eurasia.
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Mr. Biden has called Russia both “rival” and “threat”. In early 2020, he told NATO, “To counter Russian aggression, we must keep the alliance’s military capabilities sharp, while expanding our ability to respond to threats. non-traditional, such as corruption, misinformation and online fraud ”.
He also accused the Kremlin of meddling in US elections, especially the last one.
Mr. Biden’s specific measures
President Biden can counter the notion of US recession in general and the weakening of American power along Russia’s borders in particular, by modifying his policy to reverse that trend.
We could see an increase in US pressure on Alexander Lukashenko due to ongoing protests in Belarus against his new presidency, as well as stronger military support for Ukraine to consolidate. try to take advantage of the turbulent Donbas region.
Farther south, the United States could try to fill a void in the Black Sea, where Russia’s naval might since the 2014 Ukraine crisis has outstripped the collective forces of other NATO coastal states. .
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When considering relations with Russia it is impossible to escape the Turkish issue. During Trump’s four years in office, Ankara has followed a path that goes against Washington’s foreign policy goals, severely dipping relations between Ankara with the United States, as well as with NATO and the EU.
However, when Mr. Biden took office, things could be different, there were indications that both countries were interested in rebuilding a relationship that was seriously damaged.
For example, Turkey’s conflicts with Russia in the South Caucasus after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War (Second Nagorno-Karabakh War). Ankara is dissatisfied with the role Moscow is playing in this war, because it runs counter to Turkish geopolitical interests.
In addition, Erdogan has differences with his Russian counterpart Putin in terms of Syria and Libya.
As a result, US support in these geopolitical hotspots could give Turkey a strategic advantage, thereby improving relations between the two sides.
Mr. Biden will avoid “old and broken rope”?
Russia will be a focus of Mr. Biden’s strategic foreign policy. Mr. Biden has a wealth of foreign policy experience spanning from the Cold War era to the Obama era.
The consensus view of every administration in Washington is not to compromise with Moscow but this does not mean that Mr. Biden is planning to take a one-off-one approach to Russia, as he understands. the dangers of this approach.
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First of all, the new US administration will have to find a way to balance the pressure with Russia cautiously, since too much pressure could also prompt Russia to take actions that would endanger Washington in Europe- ASIAN.
The second major challenge for US policymakers will be to find a balance between forcing Russia to give in, while also preventing Moscow from falling into Beijing’s arms. Mr. Biden will have to try to avoid both of these bad scenarios.
China will remain a focus of foreign policy, but tacit moves towards building cooperation with Russia on a number of issues are possible. After all, drawing Russia closer to the West is a long-term American vision and far more feasible than finding warmth in relations with China.
Since it would be futile to access talks with Russia without any strategic advantage, the United States would have to apply a certain amount of pressure. Again, this would require tactical, but limited, pressure on Russia to allow the parties to find points of cooperation.
In short: US policy toward Russia under Mr. Biden will be tough but more consistent and coherent, unlike the chaotic messages sent by the Trump administration.