“Most profitable high-speed rail” listed can not be ignored
On January 16, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail was listed on the S & T board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. As the “China’s most profitable high-speed rail”, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail performed extremely well on the first day of its listing: the issue price was 4.88 yuan and the opening price was 5.86 yuan. It then ushered in a ceiling of 43.24%, and its stock price reached 6.99 yuan.
For railway transportation, especially high-speed railway transportation, most places are not profitable, and even have large losses. However, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail is an exception, not only profitable, but also strong profitability. Data show that from 2016 to the first three quarters of 2019, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 7.903 billion yuan, 9.053 billion yuan, 10.248 billion yuan and 9.52 billion yuan. The listing of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail also set a new record of 23 days of rapid “passing of the meeting” and a price-earnings ratio of 23 times in recent years, giving the market and investors more imagination.
Obviously, the listing of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail will give A shares a real white horse blue chip, and it is a white horse blue chip with strong sustainable development ability. From the perspective of the choice of residents, high-speed rail has become the first choice for travel. In particular, along the Beijing-Shanghai route, there are relatively more developed areas in the economy, and the population flow is very large. Often, there are many people in Beijing-Shanghai, and there is no shortage of tourists. We even envisage that with the rapid development of high-speed rail, it is very likely that there will be second and third high-speed rails between Beijing and Shanghai to ease the transportation pressure between Beijing and Shanghai.
This also means that after the listing of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail, there will be continuous support in performance, and investors will most likely use the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail as a long-term investment option.
The Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail may have an impact, or investors should pay attention to the following aspects. The first is safety. For high-speed rail, safety is absolutely the first priority. Because trains running at high speed must not miss anything. Any defect can bring great harm. There have been major accidents that have left huge pain for the high-speed rail. Therefore, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail must establish the idea that safety is the lifeline, always tighten the string of safety, and do not hold any chances on security issues, and never make any mistakes in security issues.
The second is service. Service is also a lifeline of high-speed rail. Without good service, there will be no sustainable benefits of high-speed rail. Without good service, tourists cannot be attracted. Judging from the current situation, the service of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail is generally satisfactory, and the majority of residents are willing to ride the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail. However, there are also problems with high food prices and poor quality of food on board. Passengers are not very satisfied with the food on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail, even worse than the food on ordinary trains. How to work hard for service is also very important for the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail.
The third is business. The profit model of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail is mainly based on passenger load factor. High load factor is the main source of profit for the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail. However, public opinion and the public have some comments on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail fares, hoping to reduce the fares. Obviously, if you want to reduce the fare, you must improve the profitability in other areas, and have new profit growth points. Otherwise, it is difficult to maintain the sustainable development of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail, especially the sustainable profitability. Therefore, we must work hard to improve our business capabilities and add some business items that can be supplemented. This is very important for the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail.
The fourth is reform. It can be expected that with the deepening of the reform of the economic system, the reform of the railway sector will continue to deepen, and the pattern of wholly state-owned investment will sooner or later break. The key lies in how strong the reform is, whether the existing monopoly structure will be broken, whether the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway will introduce strategic investors, what kind of strategic investors are introduced, and so on. After all, continuous monopolies have an impact on market-oriented reforms and are not conducive to the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail becoming a real market-oriented subject. Without marketization awareness, it is difficult to make a big breakthrough in business.
Even so, we believe that the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail is still a rare white horse blue chip in the future A-share market and a company that can be trusted and trusted for a long time. Especially after listing, a large amount of funds can be raised, which will play a very important role in reducing the company’s debt and further improving the company’s efficiency. Under such circumstances, whether it is possible to take action on fares is a question worthy of attention. At the very least, fares can be reduced during the off-season to respond to public opinion and fare demands.
□ Tan Haojun (financial commentator) editor Chen Li proofreading Xue Jingning