Market survival rate is only 1/10? Summary analysis of “Ark of Tomorrow” and “Second Yuan Mobile Games in 2019”


At 6:00 pm on August 15, 2017, an Sina Weibo account called “Arknight of Tomorrow” sent its first Weibo, “It’s time to set sail”, with a picture of a rabbit ear girl Back view. Although this is a very concise Weibo, the content it shows is undoubtedly profound, and somewhere in this world, something will be born.

The further matured two-dimensional mobile game market, the lack of excellent local original products is the main contradiction in 2017:

2017 was a significant year for the “China’s two-dimensional mobile game market.” According to the data released by “Gamma Data”, the revenue of the domestic two-dimensional mobile game market in 2017 exceeded 15.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 45%, which is a decrease of more than 68% from the 115% growth rate last year. Compared with the growth rate of 151% in 2014, the decline rate is more than 104%. In terms of user scale, the number of users in the domestic secondary market in 2016 was about 280 million (including about 80 million core users, and the gold deposit rate exceeded 75%). By 2017, This user scale is about 308 million, an increase of about 28 million compared with last year, and a year-on-year increase of 14%.

From the data given by “Gamma Data”, it can be seen that the entire domestic two-dimensional mobile game market has entered a stage of accelerated decline in dividends after experiencing rapid growth from 2013 to 2016. The growth rate of market share and The growth rate of user scale has widened, the per capita payment rate has increased, and the entire market is accelerating to change from a “quantity” to a “quality” situation.

But at the same time, the two-dimensional mobile game market this year still faces a more serious problem, that is, the lack of “good enough domestic original products”, even though “Yin Yang Shi”, “Bang Yang 3”, “Wonder Miracle”, “Godless Moon”, “Blue Line” and other outstanding products, but the products on the market are still mainly “ip derivative”, “low-quality skin change” and “cottage fast-moving consumer goods”.

In the process of my statistics and investigation, I found that among the 58 two-dimensional mobile game samples that were launched in 2016 and can be queried on platforms such as “TapTap”, more than half of the products were “low-quality skin change” and “simple and crude” “IP derivative” products; among the 62 samples that were launched in 2017 and can be queried on platforms such as “TapTap”, more than a third of the products are “low-quality skin exchange” and “simple and crude ip derivative” products. Most of these products come from “vertical game manufacturers” in this market, and they hope to take a slice of this market in the blue ocean stage through “skin change” and “fast-produced ip derivatives”. For example, in 2017, “Dare The game makers of “Decisive Battle” have developed products that are “IP derivatives that can be produced quickly.”

Therefore, in 2017, the “two-dimensional mobile game market” has been gradually matured, and “growing market share” and “the lack of excellent domestic original products” have become the main contradictions of this period. This market clearly needs more “quality fresh blood.”

The best game “Ark of Tomorrow”, the overall improvement of the mobile game in two yuan in 2019:

Time is allocated to January 4, 2020. On this day, TapTap, the largest domestic mobile game platform in China, announced the winners of the “Game of the Year Awards” for 2019. Tomorrow’s Ark with “Tower Defense” as its core gameplay and combining elements such as “cultivation,” role-playing, “and” two-dimensional “won the” Best Game of the Year “and” Most Influential of the Year ” The three major awards of “Made in China Games” and “Most Popular Gamers of the Year” became the biggest winners. Following “Yin Yang Shi”, another “phenomenal” product in the “two-dimensional mobile game field” was born.

Compared to 2017, in 2019, both the overall mobile game market and its branch “secondary mobile game” market have entered a stage of steady development. The complete disappearance of bonuses leaves “low-quality products” with little room for survival. Products that cannot have both “quality”, “promotion”, and “operations” will now be quickly abandoned by players even if they are online. The market is transforming yet another stepping stone.

Especially the “two-dimensional mobile game market”, with the shuffle in recent years and the impact of the game’s cold winter last year, great changes have occurred in 2019, and this change is reflected in three aspects. The first point is that “local original products” have completed occupying this market; the second point is that the quality of “two-dimensional mobile game” products has been comprehensively improved, and the competitiveness of this category of products in the “mobile game market” has increased significantly. The third thing, the social influence of the “two-dimensional mobile game” on the Internet platform is beginning to emerge.

Among the samples that I counted and surveyed, there were 64 samples that were launched in 2019 and can be queried on “TapTap”. Among them, there were only 11 “derived products based on IP”, of which 2 were Guoman IP, 9 This is the daily IP, which accounts for less than 20% of the total. Of the 64 samples, there are 18 games that can enter the top 50 of the “IOS Free List” in the first week of launch, and 10 games that have entered the top 20. In the first week of launch, there were 23 games in the top 50 of the “IOS Bestsellers” and 14 in the top 20, which accounted for about 30% of the total. Among the 64 samples, some games have been logged in in different ways. Hot search rankings on platforms such as “Bo” and “Zhuhu” have sparked heated discussions among “non-gamer” groups, forming a circle effect. The strike event of “Sparkling Warmth”, “Fox Fairy Little Matchmaker” invited Dili Reba to endorse, and 10,000 black cards in “Double Swords of Pamish” are all typical cases of going out in 2019.

Looking back at the two-dimensional mobile game market in 2019, the phenomenon-level products are no longer single, some products have repeatedly broken through 100 million yuan, and the hot searches of major platforms have appeared many times. This year, the two-dimensional mobile game market is thriving. . In particular, the success of “Ark of Tomorrow” this year is like a “vertical game manufacturer” crying for “the mobile game market with gradually grading of market share”, showing everyone that “the local originality developed by a small team and operating independently” “Two-dimensional mobile games”, even in 2019, there is still the possibility of “bringing big with a small one”.

Product polarization has intensified, the core issues of the two-dimensional mobile game have yet to be resolved, and new contradictions have emerged:

According to the “Game Industry Commission” summary of the 2019 mobile game market data, the actual sales revenue of the Chinese game market in 2019 was 158.11 billion yuan, an increase of 18.0% year-on-year. As the current hot market segment of the mobile game market, the two-dimensional mobile game market in 2019 The annual revenue is only 21.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, lower than the primary market’s 18.0%, and much lower than 45% in 2017. The development of the two-dimensional mobile game suddenly encountered a bottleneck.

Although thanks to the improvement of the overall product quality, the new two-dimensional mobile games in 2019 have a good overall competitiveness and more head products, but what is hidden under this appearance is that the polarization of the two-dimensional mobile games has further intensified, and most products Core issues such as shorter life cycles.

The same is the 64 samples mentioned above. In the first week of launch, there were 25 games ranked above 100 in the “IOS Free List”, 6 ranked outside 300, and 4 ranked outside 1000; in the “IOS Bestseller List”, launched In the first week, there were 20 games ranked above 100, 15 ranked above 300, and 3 ranked above 1000. If the ranking of 100 in the double list is the limit, and the products other than the top 100 in the first week of the launch are regarded as “deadline”, then the proportion of “deadline” products in the 64 samples exceeds 34%.

Among the games that encountered Waterloo in the first week of launch, many of them are well-made games, such as “The Sword of the Sword” by Qinyou Culture, Qinyou Network’s “Elven Restaurant”, and Seven Creations “Blade of the Beast”, if these mobile games are placed in 2016 and 2017, they can be quite competitive by virtue of quality alone.

It is worth mentioning that, in some of the 64 samples, although some products are well-made, they actively gave up multi-channel development. For example, “Shiyue Network” ‘s “Blinking Light” only listed the Android “Huawei” channel and Get over 4 million downloads, but still give up logging in to IOS.

In addition to the unsatisfactory performance of most games during the first week of launch, the operating conditions of the two-dimensional mobile game after launch are also worrying. In 64 samples, the game can still be held in the “IOS Free List” 3 months after launch There were only 7 games in the early stage, accounting for about 10%; after 3 months of launch, there were only 13 games that could stabilize the early stage of the game in the “IOS Bestseller List”, accounting for about 19%. If you exclude the games that have been on the double list for 100 times, the “initial market retention rate” of new products launched in 2019 accounted for only 11.4%, barely in the state of one in ten.

In this batch of new tours with poor follow-up operation status, there are also some big manufacturers, big productions and big publicity products. For example, Lingxi Mutual Entertainment’s “Chang’an Fantasy World Painting”, Aojiao Studio’s “Horsecraft Academy”, “Yin and Yang Division” ip derivative “Yin and Yang Division: Baiwen Brand” and Tencent’s “Fox Demon Little Matchmaker”. Especially the “Fox Fairy Little Matchmaker”, this game launched on October 13, 2019 is not only well-made, it is a big deal in terms of distribution and purchase volume. After one month of launch, it has combined the current front-line traffic star “Dili” “Reba” platform, specially shot a promotional video for promotion on Weibo. As of January 14, 2020, this promotion Weibo has generated 430,000 comments, more than 1 million retweets and 295,000 likes, and the promotion is far. Super new product of any two-dimensional mobile game.

Obviously, although the two-dimensional mobile game market has been developed for more than six years, and the entire market has continued to develop towards a healthy ecology, some of the problems buried in the “two-dimensional mobile game” remain to be solved. The large gap between “head products” and “non-head products” has replaced the earlier “high-speed market development and unequal number of local original excellent products”, which has become the main contradiction in this market.

The key factors that affect the play of the two-dimensional mobile game, “stagnant user scale” and “changed purchase market”:

Of course, this phenomenon is not entirely due to the product itself. The continued slowdown in the growth of the market user size and further changes in the purchase market are the key external factors that directly affect the play of the two-dimensional mobile game, because this directly affects the product. “Cost” and “revenue” issues.

The first is the market user size; The size of the Chinese game market in 2019 is about 620 million, which has almost no increase compared to 620 million last year. At the same time, mobile gaming categories such as e-sports, mobile e-sports, AR games, and VR games have seen significant growth in the market, further expanding into other categories to seize user time.

This situation has caused the “two-dimensional mobile game” to no longer be limited to “two-dimensional field” and “two-dimensional audiences yet to be developed”, “competitive users of similar products”, “other types of mobile game users”. “,” Non-gaming users “have become new hands at this table.

Followed by changes in the buying market: The concept of “buy volume” was originally born around 2013 in China. It is a new operation method developed with the rise of the mobile game market. At that time, some small and medium-sized mobile game manufacturers chose to reduce the cost of channel providers (the IOS platform became 30%: 70%, and the Android channel was based on different algorithms of the channel, but generally at this level). Increase advertising efforts on “Baidu streaming, webpage, UGC platform” and other channels, and use part of the funds that should be used for channel sharing to attract more users to download and pay in-game, and earn the intermediate difference to improve themselves Net profit. This method is gradually recognized by other game manufacturers along with the verification of time, and has become positive through the domestic “flow is king” Dongfeng, which has become the main means of early announcement and later operation of various games.

As a branch of mobile games, two-dimensional mobile games naturally inevitably join the buying force. However, due to the characteristics of the “two-dimensional industry audience”, the two-dimensional mobile game has advantages that are incomparable to other mobile game categories. The “centralization of users” and “specification of the platform” allow the two-dimensional mobile game to have “Smaller user acquisition scope”, “Lower user acquisition cost”.

However, this situation is now changing and ushered in a new peak in 2019.

Although the current “buying behavior” of second-dimensional mobile games still mainly occurs on “two-dimensional culture-related” platforms (Bilibili, TapTap, half-dimensional, etc.), more and more such games have begun to increase their “Headlines”, “Baidu” and other “advertising channels”, such as the “twin worlds” and “War Shuangpamis”, which are bought in 2019 as examples.

“The Twin Worlds” has been purchased more than 1200 times in the past 90 days. The main purchase channels are “Bilibili,” “Headline,” and “Baidu.” 44.26%, headline department accounted for 51.75%, “headline department” purchases have exceeded “Beep Beep Mile” 7.49%, becoming one of the main distribution channels of “The Twin Vision”.

In the past 90 days, the number of purchases of “War Double Pamish” has also exceeded 1,000 times. The purchase channels are also mainly “Bilibili”, “Headline”, and “Baidu”, of which “Beep” “Bilibili” accounted for 41.3%, “Headline” accounted for 33.95%, and “Baidu” accounted for 19.22%. Although “Bilibili” is still the most important distribution channel of “War Shuang Pamis”, but The difference between the proportion and the headline is only 8.65%, which is almost the same as the release intensity.

The new round of buying volume competition has put tremendous pressure on other “two-dimensional mobile game vertical manufacturers”, because for “two-dimensional mobile games”, the “headline” and “baidu” channels “Bilibili” is undoubtedly a larger ecological pool, and investing a large amount of money often corresponds to a smaller return.

Although “Twins Vision” put more effort in “Headline” than “Beep Beep”, its channel exposure accounted for far less than the latter. “Twins Vision” put 44.26% in “Beep Beep” Efforts in exchange for the platform’s overall exposure of 22.979 ‰, while the “headline” 51.75% of the release efforts in exchange for the platform’s overall exposure of 5.617 ‰.

A similar situation exists in “War Double Pamish”. The game ’s “Bili Bili” exchanged 41.3% of the overall exposure for the platform ’s 17.846 ‰, and the headline system ’s 33.95% was released for 2.215. ‰ overall exposure.

The return of “Headline” is more than 546.04% compared to “Bilibili.”

The competition of “new purchase volume channels” has further increased the cost of user acquisition for “small and medium vertical game manufacturers” and reduced the market competitiveness of such manufacturers, and this situation will further increase with the growth of the “full mobile game market” user scale. The slowdown of the game continues to intensify. Today ’s two-dimensional mobile game is no longer a game that “any vertical manufacturer” can play. As a representative of “small teams” and “low capital”, “vertical manufacturers in this field” “At the moment the project was launched, the mobile game market had closed the door to success for them. This is also the reason why Tomorrow’s Ark, as a “two-dimensional vertical manufacturer”, has gained such high attention after its success. It has broken through the class barriers formed by head products and head manufacturers in 16-19 years, and at the same time Over time, new class barriers will form.

Of course, this situation is also helping this market segment to fully blossom and complete self-breakthrough.

The new blue ocean of the two-dimensional mobile game, “Women to the two-dimensional mobile game” will go one step further in 2019:

The “two-dimensional mobile game” market ’s problems in the past two years, such as “slow market growth” and “higher user acquisition costs,” are causing various game manufacturers to actively look for the next blue ocean and open up new movie markets. The “two-dimensional mobile game for women” that has emerged in two years.

According to the “Game Industry Report” given by the “Game Industry Commission” in 2019, the number of female users in the mobile game market in 2019 has exceeded 300 million, accounting for 46.2% of the total domestic game user size. “302 million” is basically the same. Although this scale has stabilized in terms of the entire mobile game industry, there is still more room for development for the “two-dimensional mobile game”.

What needs to be explained here is that women’s mobile games are not a completely new concept, and “two-dimensional women’s mobile games” have not been tried in the past, but until the end of 2017, “women’s mobile games” were There is no particularly successful case in the “two-dimensional field”, and “Love and Producer” in the fire of 2018 was only listed on Android and IOS on December 20, 2017, barely catching up with the end of 2017.

But in 2019, the “two-dimensional female to mobile games” has already reached a new level. Among the 65 two-dimensional mobile game samples mentioned above, there are 9 mobile games for women, accounting for nearly 14%. In these 9 games alone, two products, “Sparkling and Warm” and “Food Words”, have achieved monthly sales of more than 100 million yuan, and these two games have maintained a good momentum of development after going online.

Especially “Sparkle and Warmth”, as a new sequel to the “Warm and Warm Series” of stacking paper, the game’s launch not only did not compress the market space of the predecessor, but has driven the revenue data of the predecessor for a period of time (“Sparkle and Warmth”). The “Warm” Taiwan clothing and the national clothing on the line have driven the “Wonder Miracle Warm” running water across the board), and “stack of paper” as a domestic “female to two-dimensional mobile games” pioneer, in 2019 with its “Love and The three main products of Producer, Shining Warmth and Miracle Warmth have achieved a flow of over 2.8 billion yuan in 2019.Among them, China’s Shining Warmth in August 2019 contributed to the super The flow of 1.4 billion yuan accounted for more than 50% of Fuzhou’s annual revenue.

In addition, in addition to the overall improvement in product quantity, product quality, and market performance, women ’s mobile games to the two dimensions in 2019 are also expanding outward in the range of game radiant people. For example, the eye-catching “Sparkling Warmth in 2019” “And” Food Word “male players are more than 30%, male users of” Sparkling Warmth “even topped the gold list in the game, on September 2, 2019” Game Daily “also reported a” 13 The year-old boy smashed 50,000 RMB in “Sparkling and Warm” (later returned 42,000 due to parental complaints). Obviously, with the change of the market and the adjustment of women’s content to the two-dimensional mobile game itself, male players have begun to play an active role in this type of game.

Conclusion:

The development of the two-dimensional mobile game is now quite different from the original state. “Introduced Products” and “IP Derivatives” are losing the right to speak in this market, and are gradually being replaced by “Local Original Products”, 2013 ~ The chaotic industrial ecology in 2017 did not bring this market into a deeper darkness, but pushed this market to a higher level. This market in 2019 is not only in terms of overall product quality, but also overall In terms of competitiveness, they have already presented a new vision.

This is an inevitable result of the self-regulation of the two-dimensional mobile game market, and it is also the result of the joint efforts of the “two-dimensional cultural audience”. This is because “two-dimensional mobile game users” are more emotional, more focused, and demanding higher standards than “other types of mobile game users.” They love a product very quickly, but they are quick to abandon a product, they can play only one product, they may also play multiple products at the same time, their attitude towards the two-dimensional mobile game is like They treat the “two-dimensional wife” the same.

Not only that, there is no fixed evaluation standard for the two-dimensional mobile game players when looking at a product. The gameplay, plot, personnel, and operation are the key indicators for evaluating a product, but they will hardly be a single indicator. And paying the bill, whether your product can meet my current taste and mood is an important basis for whether I can pay for you. A certain product may be well received on the 20th of this month, but on the 21st, updating a certain content is likely to usher in a lot of criticism from players. The accumulated word of mouth will be greatly reduced until the official revision of the content calms down the situation, The best examples are the events of Shining Warmth, Twin Horizons, and Fighting Twin Palmis in 2019.

These young players do not hesitate to exercise their right to evaluate a certain product. They are always concerned about the official development of the game and the gossip around them. With a little breeze, they can discuss on the chat group and social platforms all day. This feature means that the second-dimensional mobile game is subject to regulatory pressure from players much higher than “other categories of mobile games”, and it also means that the second-dimensional mobile games players are urging product improvement efforts much higher than “other categories of mobile games” , Especially for older products like “SLG” and “MMORPG”.

Gamers today have become an important part of the continuous progress of this market. Although this market has some head products, the phenomenon of “Monarch Glory” monopolizing domestic MOBA and “Peace Elite” monopolizing domestic FPS has never occurred. Products that cannot meet the core needs of players will be abandoned by players and replaced by new products.

Now that 2019 has ended and 2020 has begun, the game winter that has been wiped out by time has dissipated all influence on this market. I believe that in the new year, game manufacturers who have no worries will definitely be able to Bring new mobile game products to players, and the two-dimensional mobile game can also take another new step in the current good ecological environment.

Author: Pakistan Helsingborg
Source: Game Talk Shop
Original address: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/p10Hr1QBxo3tFvc4XCULYw

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