Market News | Haitong Strategy: Technology is still the main line of the industry, bank real estate sector needs to focus on in the fourth quarter
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Market News | Haitong Strategy: Technology is still the main line of the industry, bank real estate sector needs to focus on in the fourth quarter

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In the first half of the year, with the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the main line of A-shares revolved around the pharmaceutical, food and beverage, and technology industries with phased increases, setting a new high for the year. 7Since the beginning of the month, the market structure has gradually changed, with semiconductor, vaccine, liquor, and soy sauce stocks rising.Bit correction, and the previous stagflation cycle, finance and real estate have all performed recently. Haitong Securities released a strategy report on “Alternative Upsurge” around this change.

In this strategy report, Haitong Securities first reviewed the previous bull market processes and market strategies, and focused on the process of the main-line sector; later, it conducted a research on the current bull market’s round rises and summarized this bull market as “Transformation and upgrading cattle”; finally, facing the gradual restoration of the fundamentals, it analyzed the medium and long-term mainline and cyclical sectors.

The first is a review of the bull market in 2005-07. The real estate sector is the main line, and small market capitalization companies have phased in a round of rise, and finally the main line rushes to the top. Within 2 years,Shanghai Composite Index from 998 pointsRise to 6124 points, an increase of 514%. 12-15 years roundThe pace of the bull market GEM and the main board is somewhat different, which stems from the shift represented by the popularity of smartphonesThe Internet wave sweeps the world and drives the market, butIn the mostAfter the market peaked, the market still returned to the mainline market.

Haitong Securities said that the current round of rising is a normal phenomenon of the bull market, and it is summarized as a “transformation and upgrading bull”.The main manifestations of economic transformation and upgrading are: First, my country’s technological cycle depends on 5GLeading, hardware-based in the early stage, and software innovation needs in the middle and late stages; the second isConsumption upgrade presents the brandThe characteristics of globalization and servicing drive the acceleration of independent brands.

Talking about the response strategy of this bull market, Haitong Securities believes that with the mature application of 5G technology and the promotion of new energy vehicles, the technology industry chain will unfold in sequence according to equipment hardware-content-software-application scenarios.

Looking to the next year and a half to two years, the end of this bull market,Technology is still the main line of the industry, and the fundamentals will be stronger, such as the computer and new energy industry chain. Looking at the end of the year, it believes that it is necessary to take into account the logic of economic recovery. The GEM bull market has completed most of the three waves, while the main board bull market is still in progress. After the epidemic has passed, the main board fundamentals are gradually improving, and the market is expected to start early. The cycle spread to the backward cycle sector.

Among them, Haitong’s strategy is the first to promote brokerages, and said that it not only has the logic of short-term round ups to compensate for the increase, but also has the golden reform belt.The logic of long-term profitability improvement. In addition,Sectors represented by bank real estate showed low growth, Low valuation, historically, these industries may be chased by funds in the fourth quarter.

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