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Text | Special Observer Zhong Xianbai (Dean of Yuncold Industry Research Institute, Chairman of Hunan Qimang Xingyun Fresh Cold Chain Operation Co., Ltd.)
Editor | Yang Xiaotong, Cui Yandong
In the same period last year, the Yuncold Industry Research Institute made eight predictions on the development trend of the fresh cold chain industry. One year later, the fresh cold chain field is surging: With the continuous outbreak of overseas epidemics, the cold chain has become One of the channels for the spread of the virus, from salmon, Ecuadorian white shrimp to beef, many products have been tested positive for the new crown nucleic acid. Terms such as disinfection, coding, and traceability have become the key words of the imported cold chain. Merchants with the main purchase methods have been more or less affected. Therefore, the review of 2020 and the study of the development trend of the fresh cold chain industry in 2021 are of great significance to the promotion of the construction of the fresh cold chain industry in the post-epidemic era.
Review 2020 and look forward to the development of the fresh cold chain industry
Most of the domestic cold chains are low-temperature cold chains. Limited by domestic public awareness and consumption habits, domestic cold chains are still mainly served by processing plants, catering companies, canteens, etc., and cold chain products that directly flow into people’s tables The ratio is less than 10%. Under the influence of a large-scale epidemic, the demand for catering has dropped to freezing point, the group meal market has shrunk significantly, and the operation of processing plants is generally restricted. These directly cause the circulation of the cold chain to drop greatly, but due to the long shelf life of low-temperature storage, low temperature The cold chain has played an important role in responding to sudden market changes. Combined with the impact of African swine fever and the new crown epidemic on the cold chain industry, here is a summary and prospect of the fresh cold chain industry in 2020:
1. The supporting role of the cold chain on agricultural infrastructure is more prominent:
On February 5, the Central Committee issued the No. 1 document; under the high pressure of the epidemic, various ministries and commissions intensively introduced relevant policies: On March 16, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Carrying out the Construction of the First Batch of National Key Cold Chain Logistics Bases”; On March 20, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Construction of a Short-board Project Library in the “Three Rural” Fields”; on June 12, the General Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the “About Further Strengthening the Cold Chain Logistics of Agricultural Products Storage and Preservation Notice on Facilities Construction; On July 3, the State Administration for Market Regulation imposed restrictions on live poultry trading. Compared with previous years, the government has paid much more attention to the construction of cold chain logistics. It can be predicted that 2021 will be a year of blowout development of the cold chain industry.
2. Pork prices remain high and production capacity continues to recover:
The 2020 No. 1 document proposes: “Accelerate the restoration of live pig production and ensure that the production capacity of live pigs basically returns to the level of normal years before the end of 2020.” According to the designated monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on the country’s 500 county fairs and collection points, the price of live pigs in 2020 is 33.91 yuan/kg, an increase of 60.31% year-on-year; the price of pork is 52.38 yuan/kg, an increase of 55.31%; according to October The national average price of corn is 2.54 yuan/kg, and the pig-to-food ratio is as high as 13.3:1. Pig raising is still in a state of high profitability.
2017-2020 price comparison of live pig products
In addition to traditional pork companies such as Wen’s, Muyuan, and Zhengbang, who are vigorously deploying live pig breeding, many real estate companies and listed companies are also very optimistic about the profit of pork breeding and are competing to deploy pig breeding across banks. As a large number of millions of pig stock projects have been put into operation one after another, the domestic pig stock has increased rapidly:At the end of 2020, the national live pig population is 406.5 million, An increase of 96.1 million heads over the end of the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 31.0%,It recovered to 92.1% at the end of 2017.The stock of capable sows reached 41.61 million, An increase of 35% from the end of 2019,Restored to more than 92% of the inventory level at the end of 2017.
Comparison of my country’s live pig stock data from 2017 to 2020
2021 is a major turning point in the pig raising cycle. The vigorous expansion of local pig raising companies and the inflated growth of pig stocks will inevitably lead to an increase in slaughter. Compared with 2020, 2021The decline in pig prices is an inevitable trend. According to experts’ predictions, the price of live pigs will remain around 12 yuan in the first half of 2021, and will likely fall below 10 yuan in the second half of the year., The price of pigs is falling, and the demand for deep processing and cold chain will further increase, which is good for the development of fresh cold chain.
3. Despite the impact of the new crown epidemic, cold chain imports continue to increase significantly:
Document No. 1 of 2020 proposes to expand diversified import channels, increase the import of agricultural products that meet domestic demand, expand the export of superior agricultural products, and carry out in-depth anti-smuggling and comprehensive management of agricultural products. In 2020, China imported a total of 9.91 million tons of meat, a year-on-year increase of 60.4%! Among them, imported pork totaled 4.39 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 108.3%.
2020 China Pork Import Chart
The import volume has been rising steadily, and incidents in which imported cold chain goods have tested positive for the new crown virus have also occurred frequently. A total of 44 cases occurred from July to November 2020. In terms of types, the types of imported cold chain products that tested positive have extended from seafood such as fish and shrimp to livestock and poultry meat products such as pork and beef. Imported cold chain sales have entered a period of shock, and measures such as “closed warehouses” and “sale suspension” have been implemented one after another, and commodity prices have fluctuated sharply. On December 2, the State Administration for Market Supervision officially issued regulations: Imported cold chain foods without inspection and quarantine certificates, nucleic acid test reports, disinfection certificates, and traceability information shall not be sold.
In the context of the global new crown pandemic, the domestic epidemic situation has only eased through unremitting efforts, and now we are still very limited in the law of cold chain transmission of viruses. Under such circumstances, it is understandable to take some temporary measures. After the positive test of the new coronavirus in cold chain goods is publicly reported, there will be many voices questioning why the country does not stop cold chain imports. In response to this point of view, some experts have analyzed why cold chain imports cannot be suspended from the perspective of international trade order. Today, Yuncold Industry Research Institute will interpret the strategic significance of cold chain imports from another perspective:
In 2020, the national grain sown area is 175,000 mu and the total grain output is 1.339 trillion catties. my country’s per capita grain has just reached 470 kilograms. Compared with developed countries, the grain demand is basically stable when the per capita annual grain consumption is 800 kilograms.my country’s food security is in a state of “high difficulty, low level, and weak security. It is no problem to eat enough, but to import if you eat well. There is no problem in peacetime, and there are risks in wartime.”Therefore, the string of food security can never be loosened. In addition, the global spread of the new crown epidemic and the adjustment of the world trade pattern brought about by the Sino-US game have led to a sharp rise in food security risks. The trade war and the epidemic have highlighted the fragility of the global food system. The food crisis may become the world’s biggest opportunity in the future. my country needs to take precautions and prepare in advance.
In 2020, the total domestic meat consumption is about 80 million tons. According to the ratio of poultry 2:1, pork 3:1, beef 6:1, 590 million mu of land is needed to meet this demand. Therefore, the consumption upgrade of the common people in China has brought about a higher demand for land resources. According to China’s customs data, China’s total imports of grain in 2020 will be 1426.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.175 million tons, an increase of about 28%. Most of the imported grains are corn and soybeans, which are mainly used as feed to ensure China’s livestock breeding demand. In 2020, 9.9 million tons of imported meat (net meat after slaughter), calculated on the basis of the ratio of raw meat and meat yield of the corresponding category, is equivalent to rebuilding 110 million mu of land.Therefore, replacing imported food with imported meat is a national strategy to ensure that domestic land meets the supply of staple food and the people’s growing meat consumption upgrade needs, and to ensure national food security.
In terms of cold chain safety, with the continuous popularization of new coronavirus vaccination, foreign designated meat export companies have enough motivation to do epidemic prevention work because of their huge export profits. It is believed that imported cold chains can control the spread of the virus at the source. At the same time, with the continuous improvement of domestic port cold chain cargo disinfection, domestic sales traceability and other measures, the understanding of cold chain transmission of viruses continues to deepen, and the one-size-fits-all phenomenon will continue to decrease.The imported cold chain will continue the momentum of 2020 in 2021 and continue to maintain rapid development.
4. As an emergency reserve facility, the cold chain will receive long-term attention:
It has become a consensus that the new crown epidemic will coexist with humans for a long time. It will become a long-term strategy to adopt cold chain methods to improve the storage of production areas, emergency storage of sales areas, and promote the listing of chilled and frozen meat.
5. The centralization effect of the cold chain industry supply chain toward the head is increasing year by year:
In 2020, the internal differentiation of the catering industry will intensify, and the channels and upstream companies for the catering supply chain will be further concentrated. The development of cold chain supply chain enterprises and cold chain upstream companies with marketing and service thinking will accelerate. Affected by the changes in consumption habits and consumption upgrades under the epidemic, the consumption of quick-frozen food is enthusiastic. Take the quick-frozen leader Anjing Food as an example: its 2020 operating income will be about 6.965 billion yuan, an increase of about 1.698 billion yuan over the same period last year, an increase of about 32.24%. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2020 will be about 600 million yuan, an increase of about 227 million yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, an increase of about 60.86% year-on-year. At the same time, the stock price will be the highest from 53 yuan/share in early 2020. Rising to 278 yuan per share, as of the latest February 2, 2021, Yasui’s total market value was 65.4 billion yuan.As Anjing’s performance is booming, the traditional frozen food leader Sanquan also increased significantly year-on-year, and the effect of industry concentration to the top has been further enhanced.
6. Community group buying detonated the C-end demand for quick-frozen food. The essence of community group buying is TOB:
In the development stage of the traditional cold chain, people’s understanding of the cold chain is limited to dumplings and glutinous rice balls.During the epidemic, the community group-buying platform’s mode of focusing on fresh food and contactless distribution was once again recognized by the government and the people, and became an important force in ensuring the supply of fresh food in special periods.Among them, cold chain food has achieved rapid and explosive growth through community group buying channels.A large amount of frozen food goes directly to the people’s table. Once the trend is formed, it will strengthen itself. As the post-90s and 00s take the stage of family life decision-making as the main consumer, the spring of the cold chain has just begun.
Catalyzed by the epidemic, boosted by capital, community group buying ushered in a new round of explosive development in 2020. In the past less than a year, the Internet giants have sent elite soldiers and strong generals to join the community group purchases one after another, starting a “burning money” battle. On June 15, 2020, Didi launched the “Orange Heart Optimal” and announced that it joined the community group purchase. CEO Cheng Wei once threatened: “There is no upper limit on investment, and he will be the first.” In July, Meituan Optimal went online, and the senior vice president of Meituan , Chen Liang, the former head of the wine brigade, is in charge. In August, Pinduoduo entered the game with “Buy Duoduo”, and the first subsidy amount was close to 1 billion yuan. In September, Alibaba established the Hema Optimal Division, headed by Hou Yi, vice president of Alibaba and founder of Hema Fresh. On January 1, 2021, JD.com launched the “Jing Xi Pin Pin” mini program, which officially entered the community group purchase, led by Liu Qiangdong himself. With the addition of giants, it can be said that at the current stage, such a large-scale community group purchase is a perfect logistics optimization and upgrade that has unique Chinese characteristics and can only be completed in China.Community group buying is an iterative product derived from a large and complete community with a high-density population, an efficient and complete logistics distribution system, and the established national e-commerce habits. It has become a new foundation for China’s fresh cold chain retail Facilities, community group buying will become an important retail channel, and the forward market scale is estimated to be close to 2 trillion.
Community group buying is a natural match with fresh and frozen food, born for three meals a day.
Analysis of the sales proportion of various categories of products on a community group buying platform
The above picture shows the proportion of sales of various brand products on a community group buying platform. Among them, meat, vegetables, fruits and quick-frozen food belonging to the fresh cold chain account for 19.3%. Community group buying has become an important channel for ordinary people’s fresh consumption. At the same time, frozen food saves consumers cooking time, and quick-frozen food is easy to store, which is in line with household consumption scenarios: an epidemic has made most consumers accustomed to cooking at home, and frozen food itself is the best ingredient. At the same time, quick-frozen food has a high-frequency repurchase rate. If a family cooks meals four times a week, he must ensure that he purchases it once a week or two weeks. Therefore, quick-frozen food is very suitable.More importantly, it has served the frozen market industry in the catering supply chain for a long time. The types of quick-frozen foods are very rich. From quick-frozen rice noodles to hot pot ingredients, and even semi-finished products with complete flavors, it has covered breakfast, dinner, and even supper scenes, basically satisfying In order to meet our daily needs, we can provide consumers with diversified choices as long as we slightly change the packaging and cooking methods.
Xingsheng Optimal Single-Day Quick Frozen Food Brand Market Share
The above picture shows the share statistics of various brands of quick-frozen food on a certain platform on December 25, 2020. Except for the traditional C-end quick-frozen food brands such as Miss, Shuanghui, and Sanquan, the other dozen brands are all B-end brands of traditional services.Therefore, community group buying has become a new channel for the C-end of quick-frozen food, and the window of opportunity for the birth of new quick-frozen food brands such as “Anjing” has just opened.
Since community group buying is a big wind, it cannot be fleeting.As a business model, the communityThe essence of group buying is WeChat as a combined system of social supply chain + logistics system + team leader supported by mobile Internet infrastructure, Is a decentralized and re-operational e-commerce model. Because of decentralization and re-operation, companies such as Didi, Meituan, and Pinduoduo can enter in a short period of time. As time goes by, the model continues Iteration,The business model of community group buying will become a model similar to that of supermarkets today. The threshold is not high, and it is impossible to be monopolized by a few giants. More companies still have the opportunity to enjoy the dividends of the community group buying business model.
Due to the role of team leader, a single community group buying company has not completed the closed loop of products reaching consumers. In this context,The community group buying model is more similar to the B2B industry Internet platform for the group leader, and the group leader is the small B.This view is finally verified. I am afraid that the capital invested in community group buying companies will be disappointed. Just like Ant Financial’s essence is finance, community group buying platforms are essentially TOB, and community group buying platforms cannot be evaluated according to traditional consumer e-commerce valuation models. the value of.
7. Traditional wholesalers have undergone changes and embraced changes. The wholesale market is in urgent need of change:
As we said, community group buying is a business model. The essence of WeChat is the social supply chain + logistics system + leader of the mobile Internet infrastructure. The occupants of social supply chain resources are precisely a large number of traditional wholesalers. In the face of changes, some people choose to ignore and some people choose to embrace. According to the observations of the industry, the current community group buy a large number of fresh cold chain suppliers are traditional fresh cold chain wholesalers. They have the resources, funds, talents, and services of the supply chain. Community group buying platforms are just their expansion of downstream channels and have natural advantages. Under this circumstance, if the fresh cold chain wholesale market serving fresh cold chain wholesalers still follows the traditional wholesale design of fresh food circulation mode, it will inevitably fall into a situation where the plan is already behind. Therefore, the positioning of the industrial complex and the innovation of business models to meet the urban fresh supply are the next challenges that the government and related enterprises will face.
8. What will happen to the community fresh farmer’s and KA supermarket model?
As the last mile of fresh food supply, the community fresh food farmer’s market and KA supermarket have always received the government’s attention from the perspective of people’s livelihood supply. As a large number of giants enter the community group buying, the impact will not only affect traditional vegetable vendors, change their business, and even their lives, but also affect KA supermarket companies such as Yonghui and BBK who have become giants. It even attracted the People’s Daily to publish a commentary saying: Don’t just worry about the flow of a few bundles of cabbage and a few kilograms of fruit. Immediately afterwards, the “Nine New Rules for Community Group Buying” were quickly introduced, which put forward nine requirements to regulate Internet community group buying.
Some people will still say that this is the Internet giant leaning over to sell vegetables, without any technological innovation at all. Regarding innovation, Harvard University management professor Clayton Christensen discussed it in his “Innovation Trilogy.” Contrary to what many people believe, the key to the innovation he emphasized does not necessarily lie in technological progress or scientific discovery, but in the active response to market changes. This point also inspired Hillhouse Capital’s founder Zhang Lei’s conclusion in Value: There is only one moat in the world, that is, continuous innovation and crazily creating long-term value.Just as the emergence of supermarkets made the vegetable market continue to evolve, the emergence of community group buying is a huge challenge to the traditional KA supermarkets that have both fresh food and standard products. Both fresh and standard products will be blocked by community group buying. In the situation, experts predict that more than one-third of traditional KA supermarkets are at risk of closing.Over the years, the technological advancement of traditional retail industries such as farmers’ markets and KA supermarkets has been relatively limited. In the future, it is an inevitable trend to gradually apply new technologies and methods to improve labor efficiency and reduce labor costs. Disruptors such as community group buying may accelerate the self-adjustment of traditional retail, or it may be the future traditional retail model.
The above eight points are the author’s summary and thoughts on the development of the fresh cold chain in 2020, as well as the analysis of the development trend of 2021. Many of these views are consistent with the views of the author when positioning the Yuncold 1 project many years ago, and are fighting the new crown virus Over the past year or so, the rapid development of the superimposed community group buying model and the changes in the fresh cold chain industry cannot be overstated by dramatic changes. The entire fresh cold chain ecosystem is undergoing chemical reactions, and innovation has become fresh cold The key word of chain development is that only innovation can break the old shackles, and only innovation can lead the future.
The role of the cold chain in the circulation of agricultural products and emergency reserves has received unprecedented attention. It is believed that under the dual promotion of the market and the government, the development of the domestic cold chain will attract a new upsurge. However, just as there were not many people who were optimistic about Taobao, the current fresh cold chain development is facing a hundred years of major changes. The prospective completion of the design of the business model, the planning of the project site and the clear leading operation thinking will be At this stage, prepare for the fresh cold chain project!
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