The survey results of the company HS Markit published on January 22 showed that the economic slowdown in the Eurozone in January 2021 was more serious, making the risk of a new recession. almost certainly in the context of a pandemic of acute respiratory infections COVID-19 is continuing to affect the regional economy.
Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The risk of a double-digit decline in the Eurozone is increasingly unavoidable as anti-epidemic tightening measures continue to impact businesses. in January. “
[Chủ tịch ECB lạc quan về triển vọng phục hồi của Eurozone]
Purchasing management index IHS Markit’s (PMI) fell from 49.1 points in December 2020 to 47.5 points in January 2021, much lower than the 50 point level to define a growing economy. The IHS Markit PMI is considered a prestigious indicator of “economic health.”
Manufacturing activity is still strong and manufacturing’s PMI is 54.7 points, lower than the 55.2 point level in December 2020. This figure in a Reuters poll was 54.4 points. However, the employment index decreased from 49.2 points to 48.9 points.
The survey showed that entertainment venues and hotels and motels were forced to close across the continent, causing the service sector to decline sharply, but the manufacturing sector was still good because most factories were only keep active.
However, Mr. Williamson said it is encouraging that the decline is not as serious as in the first wave in the spring of 2020, indicating the relative resilience of the manufacturing sector, the increase in demand. For bad products, the blockade measures are less severe than last year.
As economic activity continues to decline and anti-epidemic measures are expected to take hold for some time longer, companies in the service sector are forced to cut losses.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell from 48.6 points to 46.9 points, the lowest level since June 2020.
This leaves policymakers in European Central Bank (ECB) disappointed, having to maintain monetary policy even though low inflation has been a “thorn” in ECB’s eyes for many years.
The index of futures production fell from 64.5 points in December 2020 (near the highest level in 3 years) to 63.6 points.
Mass vaccination campaigns have helped maintain confidence in the economic outlook for the coming year, Mr. Williamson said.
Reuters news agency poll results earlier this week showed the economy of Eurozone growth is forecasted at 0.6% in Q1 / 2021 and will return to pre-epidemic growth over the next two years in the hope that mass vaccination will help countries in the region return to a new normal state. .