After it has been reported that the US government has thought of removing President Trump with Amendment 25, the US House of Representatives is currently discussing impeachment terms of President Donald Trump. A draft document published earlier on the Capitol rally on Jan. 6 and the accusations of Mr Trump of “inciting riot”.
It is impossible to remove President Trump with Amendment 25
However, American experts say that Democrats are unlikely to conduct a second impeachment with US President Donald Trump, but they can ban Mr. Trump from holding the state office in the future. This will eventually close the doors of 2024 election opportunities for him and someone close to President Trump will come onto the stage.
Experts all said that the 25th Amendment will not help remove President Donald Trump. Democrat proposal triggers the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution to immediately deprive President Trump of power and transfer power to the vice president due to incapacity for the incumbent head of state to complete His duty, is in vain.
“I think this is unlikely. Deprivation requires support from Vice President Mike Pence and a majority of his cabinet. Although loyalty to President Trump has diminished, but, more likely. Those who now want to leave him would rather resign than vote in favor of deprivation, “said Patrick Deneen, professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana.
James Campbell, a professor of political science at the University of Buffalo, also said that an attempt to trigger the 25th Amendment is unlikely to succeed, as most cabinet does not believe that President Trump has provoked people. violence. President Trump has called for opposition to the results of the election because there are signs that many consider “fraudulent”.
And Cornell University professor of government apparatus research, Richard Bensel, also said that the chance of this proposal to succeed is almost zero.
“There is simply no time to go through all the stages, even in the case that Vice President Mike Pence wants to activate this Amendment. But, he doesn’t want this” – Professor Bensel explained like more.
|Democrats are looking to stop Trump from returning in the 2024 presidential election|
Can not be deposed … impeachment
The second option, which Democrats are seriously considering, is impeachment. This plan comes from the House of Representatives, which the Democrats are dominant.
According to Bensel, President Trump’s actions certainly deserve impeachment, but the question is how plausible it is.
He reminded that, even if the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives accepts the Democratic proposal, the Republican-held Senate cannot proceed with impeachment of President Donald Trump, at least until the day Mr. Joe Biden was sworn in.
Democrats want to take the right stance on President Trump’s actions even when the Senate cannot act, Professor Bensel said. For most Democrats, this is a matter of principle, the expert emphasized.
“Democrats will do this because they ‘hate’ President Trump and all that he supports. They believe it will shame him and damage his reputation in the future. the number of independent politicians and marginalized Republicans. ” This will also cause many problems for Mr. Trump in the future – Professor Campbell said.
However, according to expert Patrick Deneen, impeachment, as well as the activation of the 25th Amendment, is unlikely to happen before President Trump ends his term, even if the Democrats vote on things soon. impeachment of President Donald Trump.
So why do Democrats still insist on impeachment proceedings, even though they know that the likelihood of winning is not high?
The main political motive behind this is the possibility of holding a second Senate vote on the issue that prevents Trump from having a chance to once again enter the White House, notes Patrick Deneen.
No impeachment is prohibited … from participating in politics
According to Deneen, if Congress does not ban Trump from holding the state office again, he could completely run for president again in 2024, but there is no guarantee of this.
The possibility that he will run again remains, but I think, most likely, we will see another Trump in the 2024 election “- expert Deneen explained.
Mr. Deneen said Trump was 78 at the time and could face numerous investigations and potentially be charged with a criminal offense or even convicted …. Prof Bensel also said, Lawsuits large or small will also negatively impact Trump’s political future.
However, he may try to pardon himself. This will result in the Supreme Court blocking most of these actions, but will keep the pardon order, and Trump will not be investigated.
On the other hand, Mr. Trump has millions of loyal supporters, they will remain a potential force within the Republican Party. Although it is not certain that Republicans will nominate Trump as the presidential candidate in the 2024 election, but this can still happen, “- said the expert.
Hence, the purpose of the second vote could prohibit Donald Trump from holding the state office in the future. Past precedents suggest that this decision can be passed without a majority, even if the Senate does not remove the president.
However, the expert emphasizes that one question is whether this process can continue after the president has left the White House (this has never happened before). In his opinion, this will be decided in court.
Even so, experts agree that it is difficult to predict Trump’s participation in the next elections, as they are still so far away, but we need to prepare for all. likely to happen.