When the Taliban have not calmed their vengeance and yet created the opportunity to take revenge, the return of American soldiers in Afghanistan is still very difficult …
The US anxiously withdrew its troops from Afghanistan earlier than planned
According to the Xinhua News Agency, on May 26, President Donald Trump announced that he would withdraw all US military forces from Afghanistan, which also means ending the longest war in US history.
At a White House press conference, President Trump emphasized that the presence of US military forces in Afghanistan over the past 19 years was “more than enough”, so he wanted to bring these soldiers back. home.
With the idea that Easter will be the time for the withdrawal, the head of the White House said he had not yet determined a specific schedule for the withdrawal and will take place at an appropriate time, but not on the Solemnity of Easter.
Meanwhile, according to The New York Times, the Pentagon is preparing to submit to the US military commander a preliminary plan for the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, including the choice of the time to withdraw troops before the election.
|President Trump has not been able to bring American soldiers to Afghanistan yet soon|
However, US military officials are still concerned that the rapid withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan will greatly affect the agreement between the Kabul government and the Taliban rebels.
The Pentagon has stated that Washington will pledge to implement a plan to reduce the number of troops in Afghanistan based on the content of the US-Afghanistan Joint Declaration and the US-Taliban Agreement.
Specifically, according to the Pentagon’s announcement, US forces in Afghanistan will be reduced to 8,600 people within 135 days and all US-led coalition forces will withdraw from Afghanistan within 14 months.
As such, both the White House and the Pentagon were anxious to withdraw their feet from the Abundon quagmire, but this military plan was tinged with politics, and it was not hard to identify as serving in the war campaign. nominated by the businessman president.
The Taliban will not let Washington be satisfied
Analysts say that the Taliban will not let Washington achieve their will, meaning that the US withdrawal cannot take place as planned and President Trump cannot exploit the effect of the US-Taliban Agreement for the war campaign. dispatched.
First, the consequences of the US asking the Taliban to treat IS-Al Qadae
According to analysts, the Taliban’s signing of a direct agreement with the US has turned the Kabul government into a derivative entity, leaving the political process for Afghanistan at a standstill, and the US asking the Taliban to try IS-Al Qadae for peace in Afghanistan. always very remote.
Peace for Afghanistan is far away because, according to the US-Taliban Agreement, the rebel group is obligated to ensure that IS and Al Qadae can not use Afghanistan as a refuge to launch terrorist attacks. .
How does the Taliban do it and can do it, except that both IS and Al Qadae are involved in the Afghan political process, which means all three terrorist organizations are on the same political chessboard. Hybrid of Afghanistan.
The Taliban did not prevent IS and Al Qadae from using Afghanistan as a refuge for conducting terrorist attacks, because when IS and Al Qadae could not live and act in Afghanistan, the Taliban had no way back, even like fish on a Washington cutting board.
The Taliban cannot stop IS and Al Qadae from using Afghanistan as a refuge for conducting terrorist attacks, because the Taliban actually cannot afford to do that. This is the responsibility that Washington delegates beyond the Taliban.
|The Taliban will not treat and cannot treat IS as expected by the United States|
When unwilling and unable, the Taliban will let IS and Al Qadae rage and the country of Afghanistan still mourned, making the agreement signed with the Taliban unlikely to bring peace to Afghanistan.
Therefore, the Taliban’s sudden announcement of a cease-fire for three days, from May 24, on the occasion of the Eid al-Fitr marking the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, seemed to be just a “lullaby” to Washington. and Kabul only.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said: “Until the violence is really reduced and significant progress is not achieved in the political process, Afghanistan will still be harmed by terrorism.”
With the situation in Afghanistan after the signing of the US-Taliban Agreement, the US would dare to withdraw and possibly withdraw its troops, except that Washington was willing to abandon Kabul and accept complete defeat before the Taliban.
Second, the Taliban have not yet calmed revenge
About the will of revenge : The Taliban won the upper hand in Afghanistan in the 1990s, after the Soviet withdrawal. The United States, which supported anti-Soviet Islamic forces, turned a blind eye to the harsh Taliban government.
However, after the horrific terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, the United States pointed its nose at the Taliban, then sent troops to attack Afghanistan, overthrowing the Taliban’s government. Obviously this is a face of Washington that the Taliban are not easy to forgive.
When the situation changed after the Taliban leadership reorganized the network with the support of Pakistani military officials, the first and most important criterion in the Taliban’s strategy was to execute revenge on the United States with a plan. anti-American long.
It is noteworthy that the Taliban immediately applied the US-built combat plan to fight the Soviet Union, to fight the Americans themselves. That showed how fierce the Taliban’s vengeance for the United States.
In particular, after nearly 20 years of US government overthrow, the Taliban have had very few ideological changes, so the group has always shown strong opposition to changes in Afghanistan following the Western trend. .
So, as the U.S. military and rebel forces reduced their face-to-face fighting, the Taliban tended to intensify their attacks on Afghan government security forces, sparking fear. general public.
|The Taliban have not calmed their will for revenge after nearly 20 were ousted|
The Taliban are constantly trying to sabotage the Kabul government, killing many government officials with car bombs or assassinations. The Taliban battlefield commanders also said the ceasefire was not being applied by the Taliban to Afghan government forces.
“Our holy war started before the Americans came, it was against decadence. Metamorphic people begged Americans to come because they didn’t dare to fight, affecting the jihad.
However, our jihad will continue until the end of the world, until the Islamic system is established, “affirmed by an elite Taliban” Red Unit “force commander in Alingar. , according to The New York Times.
As such, the Taliban’s vengeful will not only be for American forces, but also for pro-American forces. This is what makes Washington unable to easily withdraw its foot from Afghanistan, although it is very tired.
About revenge opportunity : It can be seen that Washington’s fatigue and impatience to withdraw from Afghanistan create the best chance for vengeance for the Taliban, which is further benefited from the conflict in the power sharing of pro-American forces.
When the US-Taliban Agreement was signed, Taliban negotiating chief Abbas Stanikzai rejoiced: “Clearly, we won this war … That’s why we signed the peace treaty.”
This shows that the Taliban saw an opportunity from American fatigue after nearly two decades of waging war in Afghanistan and Washington’s impatience to quickly withdraw from its foot in Afghanistan.
With the will of revenge burning, the opportunity from America’s fatigue and impatience will not be easily missed by the Taliban. This time only depends on the ability of the rebel group.
According to The New York Times, as soon as US military operations and the Afghan government force reached its peak, costing the Taliban more than 1,000 fighters a month, the rebels were still able to recruit enough young men to recover. war service.
So, when the US is tired, it will be much easier to recruit. According to US and Kabul authorities, the Taliban now has about 50,000-60,000 standing fighters, tens of thousands of armed members and part-time forces.
|Washington and Kabul also have to deal with the Taliban’s revenge|
The Taliban, meanwhile, has been steadily increasing its income, which is now estimated to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars a year, mainly from mining, collecting taxes on goods and transportation, especially drug trafficking. Meaning the Taliban is capable of realizing the opportunity for vengeance.
Obviously, the US has not been able to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan, so the Pentagon’s plan may be just a pre-feasible plan, and President Trump’s statement quickly brought American soldiers in Afghanistan home is just just a “selfie” way.
It can be seen that the way back of US troops in Afghanistan is still very difficult, the day is still very far away, if the Taliban do not “condescend”, paving the way for Washington.