That put the Americans in a passive position, causing American forces to strain before being “beaten”.
… yellow face like turmeric!
CNN reported that the administration of President Donald Trump had told Congress that in the next few weeks there could be a response from Iran after Washington’s attack on Baghdad airport in Iraq caused the Young. Iranian General Qassem Soleimani – Commander of the Quds unit of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) – died.
According to CNN, on January 3, representatives of the Department of Defense, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and National Security Council of the White House had a brief report before Congress.
At this work, US authorities believe that Tehran will take some response. However, Americans cannot be sure how and when Iran will act!
|Protesters against the US carry photos of General Q. Soleimani|
CNN said that US officials could not rule out the scenario that Iran would act on US territory. Americans believe that Iran can use Hezbollah which is said to have agents in both the United States and European countries. US officials also forecast that Iran could attack US allies in Europe.
Such predictions are nothing new, but they reflect the real concern of Americans after the murder of one of Iran’s key figures, pushing tensions to a new level.
American experts must also ask the ironic question of whether General Soleimani’s life is more dangerous or if this character is murdered will pose a more serious threat to the interests and lives of American citizens?
Iran sees the US assassination of General Soleimani as an act of war, bringing the United States and its allies into a confrontation with Iran and the defense forces in the region.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has vowed to retaliate vigorously, while Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif condemned the US air strike as “terrorist act” and on his personal Twitter page he described it as “operating escalation is extremely dangerous and stupid “.
No one knows when and how Iran will retaliate, but US defense and intelligence officials have long recommended the possibility of Iran using asymmetric tactics, such as terrorism and attack. Hackers target the US and Western countries.
US officials have contacted allies to prepare for possible situations.
|The car carrying Generalimimimani burned after being hit by missiles from an American drone|
The State Department said Secretary of State Pompeo phoned British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab and German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Pakistan Army Chief of Staff General Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa.
The assassination of Soleimani is not only a loss of life to Iran, but also an attack on Tehran’s reputation.
Iran’s response to the US has been partly shown after the United States unilaterally tore up the nuclear deal and implemented a tactic of maximum pressure. The West argues that the IRGC and its allies have upgraded from limited attacks on Gulf oil tankers to missile and drone strikes against oil production facilities. of Saudi Arabia.
Evolutions of the past few days show that Iran can hardly ignore actions considered as declaring war by the US.
The problem is that Tehran is showing a “cool” and positive attitude as if it is considering the possibility of a response. That put the Americans in a passive position, causing American forces to strain before being “beaten”.
What are Iran’s limited options?
Expert Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution recalled historical data showing that Iran had been subjected to major attacks but not provoked, leading to reckless response.
Tehran can choose to respond “cruelly”, “right place, right time” as declared by Iran’s leadership.
The first scenario listed by analysts is the possibility of Iran using close forces across the region such as Houthi in Yemen, Shiite Islamic militia in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, in which Iraq is considered the main battlefield.
|Hezbollah forces members in Lebanon|
Pro-Iranian Shiite militias are even capable of pushing American forces out of Iraq. Many US analysts are considering this, considering the withdrawal of troops from Iraq will be a “major strategic loss for the US in the Middle East”.
Hezbollah, meanwhile, is not only active in Lebanon but can also launch an attack on Israel, which is considered “an extension of the United States”.
Iran can also use cyberattacks, seeking to destroy American and Western industrial targets such as dams or power plants. Western analysts are concerned about the impact of these attacks on social stability such as power outages, poisoning, gas leaks, explosions, traffic chaos and overcrowded hospitals.
In addition, the oil market immediately responded to the assassination of General Soleimani when the price of oil increased by more than 4%, reflecting the anxiety of disrupting oil supplies from the Middle East. The Iranian blockade of oil transport activities in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be ruled out.
|Is Iran limited in its choice and ability to confront the United States directly?|
The most worrying scenario is that Iran uses its missile arsenal to attack the interests of the United States, Israel or Saudi Arabia and risk turning into a full-scale war.
Despite this, analysts seem to agree that any Iranian attack is unlikely to hit US territory and endanger American survival. There is even an opinion that the Iranian leadership will not pursue “suicide” and avoid a direct war with the US.
However, that does not mean that Americans can “high pillows sleep.” There is an opinion that: “The consequences of Mr. Soleimani’s murder will only be felt after weeks or months. A lightning reaction is not an Iranian method. ”
The Hill of the US argues that the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani is short-sighted, counter-strategic and will only make Iraq more unstable.
Meanwhile, the German DW considers the assassination of General Soleimani a political mistake, creating the risk of continuing to arouse anti-American and anti-Western spirit in the region.
Although US officials justified the airstrike on Generalimimimani in order to prevent a potential attack, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the United States remained committed to reducing tensions with Iran, but this action backfired. to support Iran’s own interests.